Path dependencies in fibre plant architectures

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The recent report by Analysys Mason for OFCOM ("Fibre capacity limitations in access networks") shows again that there are some important path dependencies in the choice of fibre plant architectures for access networks. The main stream press focuses on the speed projections but there is a lot more to enjoy.

In a presentation in November in the UK ("Fibre to Britain") I have showed these slides to demonstrate the choices.

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Unfortunately Analysys Mason limits their view (as seen so often) to IP traffic : the myopic view of pure Internet afficionados forgetting there is more than data packets, like linear RF. They also miss the opportunity of "Lambda to the Home".
Nevertheless they make the same point: architecture choices create path dependencies.

Each FTTH technology has an upgrade path to support higher capacity for the next five years. However, the fact that TDM GPON solutions require customer premises equipment to operate at a much higher bandwidth than that required for each individual customer, may limit how far it can be upgraded in the medium to long term, especially as the customer premises environment can be challenging. For example the temperature at the customer premises can fluctuate, whereas premises designed to host long-haul network equipment are air conditioned, thereby minimising temperature fluctuation.

The first observation is that more evolution of enabling technologies is required for PON generations than for PTP architecture, which in a way, makes PTP a less risky technology to invest in. In addition, due to the greater bandwidth scalability of PTP systems, the expected life cycle of each generation of PTP is likely to be longer than that associated with TDM PON. This is an important result, as it indicates that operators will have a longer time to get return on their investment with a PTP architecture compared to a TDM PON architecture, despite a slightly more expensive initial deployment costs (PTP are currently 19% more expensive to deploy than TDM PON systems, mainly due to the additional fibre, and therefore duct infrastructure required).

I would add: the one architecture and approach that gives you the highest penetration over the lifespan is by far the most interesting one. Unbundling and flexibility of technology increases penetration so it is a factor you should be more interested in than bandwidth scalability.

So from this analysis, we do not believe that there will be any significant barriers in the evolution of FTTH systems capacity. However, we believe the bottlenecks maybe in the upgrade of one generation of FTTH systems to the next, especially if an operator decide to depart from a TDM PON infrastructure to a WDM PON infrastructure. In the UK for example, if, in the medium term, Openreach was to upgrade its GPON network to a WDM PON network, it would need to prepare for it today by allowing for extra space in the splitter site to be accommodate extra equipment (wavelength demultiplexers for WDM PON).

Indeed. 
Not a bad report, just missed some obvious points.


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Telepresence like you want it

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Big company

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Why on earth did anyone at Google think this is necessary or effective as a marketing action?

On major trainstations in the Netherlands, boys and girls dressed in an white Google jacket, dispensing small red pencils for the local elections tomorrow.
Rotation of googleelect.jpg

ACTA and ineffective strategies

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As the ACTA storm is rising (try #ACTA on Twitter) a new report shows what history has taught us many times (as in the Prohibition): don't fight what everybody wants with severe punishments, create a good commercial and competitive alternative instead.

The Dutch blogger Arnould Engelfriet reports about a  Dutch study on the reaction of the Dutch public to a potential "three-strikes" law,  (rapport-onderzoek-downloadverbod.pdf) done for the Copyright and New Media Foundation 

The translated summary follows.


Download Ban will not help industry

A download ban will not affect the purchasing behavior of Internet users.
Such a ban, proposed by the Cabinet, may prove counterproductive to the fight of 
illegal music and movies on the Internet. This shows a survey  by research company 
Multiscope commissioned by the Foundation and New Media Copyright held amongst a
representative fraction of the Dutch population. The foundation advocates for improving the
quality of legal downloads and the removal of copy protection and unskippable intros. This because sales of legal music will be boosted by these measures. 

Of those surveyed 63 percent said they would not buy more movies or music in the store as a result of a ban. Ten percent of respondents said to buy even less in the store after a download ban.
One third of the Dutch population sometimes downloads music or movies from the Internet. More than one million Dutch even more than once a week. No less than 75% of the respondents who is downloading is not going to cut back if such a ban was coming. Only when the ban would be linked to continuous monitoring and a shutdown of the Internet connection as a result of a violation, 43% of the respondents would reduce their downloading. 
.....
Over sixty percent of the respondents said they would consider it a mistake and unjustified if the ISP would be required to monitor traffic offenders to detect violations. A shutdown of the Internet connection is considered equal  to exclusion. 

Offering legal alternatives will give little change to the behavior of downloaders:
only 10 percent of respondents would stop illegal downloading. 

Although legal offers of  music and movies on the Internet should be promoted, the criminalization of the current download practice is a disastrous policy.

The study shows that the meager supply, the copy protection and the poor quality of legal alternatives are the main reason people download.As the Apple iTunes  store for music and a recent British study has shown, investment in quality will be much more productive.

Killer app

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This would make me order a FttH connection for my mother. She would definitely be able to use it and keep in touch with everyone.  (CES 2010, LG's new Skype embedded TV series).


Fiber in the home

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The next step in FTTH is obvious: FITH (fiber-in-the-home) and just around the corner.

"Genexis' new CPE is the first POF-enabled product to provide a seamless fiber-powered home network. ......With its unlimited bandwidth, our POF-enabled CPE is a logical step for Genexis as it gives customers a solid, reliable, easy to install and very fast in-house infrastructure. "

The design of OptoLock enables the fiber to be cut and terminated to the exact required length on site, enabling even the most novice consumer to quickly and easily terminate the bare optical fiber. This means that OptoLock enables all the advantages of optical fiber to be brought into the home with do-it-yourself simplicity and costs. The benefits of this simple, robust high-speed interface will be significant as high-speed services like 100 Mb IPTV are delivered into the home.

Symmetry: on averages and variation

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Dr. Kenjiro Cho  is a renowned researcher of the Internet in Japan. His famous paper on The Impact and Implications of the Growth in Residential User-to-User Traffic  was the first to point to the real observed usage of high speed broadband by a large population.

In my words: at one point in time 5% of the population is a heavy user, but its never the same 5 %. People use the capacity casual when needed and expect an immediate response. Just like we use our electricity network, water network, sewer network. They are not built for averages.

Think of sewers pipes from your home, what a mess would it be if they were designed for the average flow and you try to flush your toilet.

At the IETF meeting in Japan last November  on "Internet Bandwidth Growth: Dealing with Reality"  Dr. Kenjiro Cho  talked about his latest findings (Transcript session IETF76 Dealing with bandwidth growth Cho.pdf)


He used some statistical terminology in his talk that needs some explanation, lest people draw the wrong conclusion. Dr. Cho was kind enough to clarify the data for me, which I would like to share. [Update] The interpretation is mine.

The first data point is the gradual shift in average residential data consumption in Japan.

 In the period 2005 -2009 the average upload grew by 29 %, the average download however grew by 117 %. The symmetry ratio's (up:down) changed from 1:1 in 2005 and 1:1,7 in 2009. The main reason is the increase in streamed video.

But averages can be misleading (as in the case of your sewer pipe when you flush the toilet a couple of times per day). An indicator of the variation is the difference between the mean (average) value measured and the mode value of the measured distribution. (The mode value is the value that has the highest  count in the table of measurements. For instance the row (400,1,1,1,300,1,2,1,350) has a mean value of 117 and a mode value of 1).

The bigger the difference between mode and mean, the more variation there is in the measured values.

The ratio of observed mean versus mode values are  123:1 in 2005 and 93:1 in 2009 for the upload, indicating a very high variability in usage patterns for the upload. Sometimes some people are sending large amounts of data.

For the download the ratio is 14:1 in 2005 and 8,5: 1 in 2009, less variation than observed in the upload  and consistent with the observation that a lot of streamed video is viewed.

Dr. Cho's observations show that bandwidth usage in ultra high speed broadband networks is  consistent with a casual usage pattern with very high variations, like we use other utilities.

And that averages can be very misleading.

Mobile operators craving for fixed lines

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As Nico Baken often says "Mobile bits are desperately seeking the nearest fixed line".

In Barcelona (Mobile World Congres) is has become clear that this truth cannot be ignored anymore, as people are fully exploiting the joys of mobile data connectivity through devices like the Iphone, Android phones and the soon to be added WM7 phones.
"Offloading" data traffic to the nearest fixed line with Internet access is the hot subject. As the amount of traffic currently generated by mobile users is just a drop in the bucket of fixed line data it makes a lot of sense.

As one of my friends says :

The "newly" discovered interest in offload just reinforces the point that we've all known:  with the exception of mobile satellites, "mobile" networks aren't mobile at all.  
People and devices are mobile (or at least untethered) but the networks are fixed and the sooner the traffic is dumped into the fixed network, the better for optimizing use of the radio access links.  
The reason femto-cells (GSM/HSDPA access point inside a building) interests carriers is that the radio traffic never even leaves the building before it goes into a fixed network.  Same with in building WiFi, etc.  
In addition to facing overload of the radio links, they also are having to deal with inadequately provisioned base stations. If you have multiple users each using multi-MB off the same antenna/base station, a DS3 (let alone T-1s) to the tower won't cut it.  In order to make the entire system scale, they're having to deploy fiber to the base station.

(Thanks Robert Pepper).

Ipad as "Club Med" for home automation

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In a previous post I predicted that the Ipad would be the ideal device for digital tourists (wealthy, middle aged or elder) at home, giving access to home systems at large. Great if the apps and icons would work the same on your Iphone as on the Ipad.

And indeed.

Gizmodo points to the interfaces and apps Cestron, a large home automation producer already has developed for the IPhone and  has ported to the Ipad. Google some more and you find these video's.





Hiding behind your own walls

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Try this link  http://www.digitalhome.ca/2010/02/shaw-to-trial-ftth-internet-service/  on a Canadian website about an FTTH trial, and you might get this. You got to be kidding me....


Sorry, we cannot serve up the page you requested! 

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Are you in North America? 

 If you are in North America and you are being blocked from the Digital Home then please send an email to query at digitalhome.ca to notify us. Send us your Name, IP address, company, and city your are in and we will ensure that you can access the Digital Forum. Without this information, we are unable to assist you. 

Are you outside North America? 

nfortunately, if you are outside of North America, there is little we can do to help you. In our research, we have found that over 99% of posts made by members outside of North America were simply spam. The problem was so bad that our volunteer moderators were spending hours a day dealing with the problem manually. Since our site is primarily aimed at Canadians the IP ban is our only method for reducing vast amounts of spam and cannot be lifted. We apologize but hope you understand. Digital Home Canada
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