Hotel California

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Jonathan Zittrain comments in the Financial Times on the centrally controlled "paradise" of Apple.

The iPhone's hybrid model of centrally controlled outside software is already moving beyond the smart phone. This is the significance of the iPad. It could have been built either like a small Apple Macintosh - open to any outside software - or as a big iPhone, controlled by Apple. Apple went with the latter. Attach a keyboard to it and it could replace a PC entirely - boasting plenty of new apps, but only as Apple deems them worthy.

If Apple is the gatekeeper to a device's uses, the governments of the world need knock on the door of only one office in Cupertino, California - Apple's headquarters - to demand changes to code or content . Users no longer own or control the apps they run - they merely rent them minute by minute.


The Apple logo may be a sign: once you have taken a bite of the apple you can "check out but never leave".

( Yes, I own a Milestone/Droid for exactly this reason).

iPad: Club Med for digital tourists

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As the noise of the religious and the technorati dies down its time to peer through the fog and see what the IPad might be all about.

One of the best analysis I have seen is the notion that Apple has created a device that will be the dominant gateway in the home for people who are just....users.
The proverbial wealthy babyboomer couple, kids grown up, use the Internet like they are digital tourists. Put off by technical complexities or user interface kinks, it just has to work and be pleasantly simple, easy on the old eyes. 
You can see the content together on the couch, your wife is able to use it without much ado.

Its like Club Med for vacation. A perfectly crafted illusion of adventure packaged in a safe paradise, isolated from the sometimes nasty reality.  
Backpackers hate it, but who cares?

It will be a hit with the babyboomers, demographically and financially the dominant group in our society.

Mobile HSPA data much cheaper than voice

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After an extended break to refresh the senses the subject of congestion and "bandwidth hogs" is back on the table.

A recent article by Ericcson ( recipe for mobile broadband profitability.pdf ) points out that the difference in cost per bit between HSPA and digital voice apparently is not registered in the discussions, nor in the profitability calculations of several services. With potentially devastating effects on policies and Net Neutrality discussions.


In the current software release for HSPA, there is a difference in capacity (spectrum efficiency) of roughly 10 to 12 times when comparing the voice and HSPA bearer on a 5 MHz carrier. This means a voice byte is about 12 times more costly than a mobile broadband byte. This relation will change as high-speed data evolves, and even more so if voice is moved over to packet networks. If this cost uneven relation is not taken into account - and in most current studies it is not; the cost allocation is done on an equal basis - mobile broadband will be overloaded with cost by a factor of at least 10 times. 

HSPA.PNG
The effect is quite substantial as the graph shows, potentially leading to serious mistakes in making policies and business decisions.

Ericcson shows also that bandwidth hogging is not an issue, even with P2P traffic or mobile IP-TV. The network management facilities allow for a fair Congestion Neutrality methodology.
The algorithm lowers the priority of users that have consumed a lot of bits in the recent past (days). If there is no congestion, nobody notices anything. If congestion if imminent, the low prioity users get reduced bandwidth allocations, favoring high priority users (aka the ones that did not use much bandwidth earlier on).

Seems fair to me, and illustrates the point made in earlier posts that there is plenty of technology available to manage congestion without resorting to data caps. 

Mobile versus fixed peering

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Hendrik Rood (Stratix) made an excellent observation recently. 

He noticed that since a few months Ams-IX separates in their neutral peering point traffic statistics the data for the ISPs exchange from the GPRS Roaming Exchange Peering Amsterdam (GP-A) which is by far the largest neutral peering between the Tier-1 mobile data backbones (which are abbreviated as GRX).

amsixmob.PNG
 


















Now according to Hendrik one has to be a bit cautious, as this is the international peering do not show the amount of the Dutch mobile operators peering (which is today between five networks run by 3 operators), but the growth pace and some features of the traffic pattern suggests several key points:
 
The Ams-IX annual report explained that YE2006 GP-A traffic was at the same level as ISP traffic was in september 1997, since then the GRX did not showed the more agressive growth path that Europe's ISP traffic followed.  P-A traffic grows thus at a 10 year distance to fixed.
 
When during the summer months fixed internet traffic stabilises or slightly falls, mobile traffic soars. Roaming to the holiday locations is the explnantion. 
 
This graph is something well worth to keep in mind whenever someone starts again with suggesting that mobile Internet will soon supplant fixed broadband.
 
( Thanks to Hendrik for allowing me to use  the content of his mails)

The bogeyman has vanished

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It has been overdue for a long time: the music industry finally starts to face the truth that their old business models are to blame for the decline in revenu, more than piracy.

MusicTank is a business development network for the UK music industry, owned and operated by the University of Westminster - it's purpose; to engage with industry, innovation and change across the music business. Their latest editorial is eloquent and to the point, it would be shame to try to say this in my own words. Therefore a long quote, but do read the original!

The problem that the music industry now faces is that the usual convenient bogey man, the music pirate, has for once a fairly decent alibi.  Whilst music piracy has no doubt eaten into those album sales over the years, what we're seeing here is the result of a long-held belief by much of the public (and industry too) that albums are simply a waste of money; often three or four good tracks packaged with a load of old rubbish.

Much as the everything-is-available-all-the-time model can propel an 18 year old Rage Against the Machine track to the top of the charts, it also allows the public to pick and choose from an album, cherrypicking the quality whilst wisely steering clear of the filler.

Sadly for the music industry, the albums most likely to find themselves picked apart are also the biggest selling pop releases.  I'm not sure if you've ever sat through an entire Destiny's Child album, but if you ever want to truly experience dissapointment then it's worth putting yourself through it.

Take the band's multi-million selling Survivor, toploaded with the admittedly great singles; the drop-off into simpering mediocre ballad territory is steep and deep enough to give the listener vertigo.  I'd imagine that if you could poll the estimated 13 million people worldwide who handed over £10-15 for the CD if they'd have preferred to spend a fraction of that on a handful of the album's songs there would be a refund queue stretching as far as the eye could see.

<>  
The sad truth is that the album, arguably a fairly recent and artificial construct anyway and a good wheeze whilst it lasted, is surely destined for niche status.


Flowers for Google in China

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The announcement by Google that they will cease to filter content in China, even if it means leaving the country leads to the following tribute by the Chinese.

flower google.jpg



Your own green power

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If you want to generate power for your mobile devices in a sustainable way there are multiple options to do so. A solar powered charger, a charger on your bike, or in your gym, or you can use handpowered devices. This nPower PEG (Personal Energy Generator) can go with you anywhere and will recharge your devices as you walk, run, hike or bike. Just place it vertically, and it will do the job when you're moving. Maybe I will charge my phone on my daily biketrip (when it hits the market).
GreenNPower-PEG.jpg
Via: The Chic Ecologist

Marketing Mobile, Ghana style

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As a friend of mine noticed while travelling in Ghana, mobile connectivity is everything in these countries as the fixed networks are hopelessly underdeveloped. As a result the competition between providers is fierce, up to the point where people are converted to an extended "family"or tribe related to the provider. Fitting with the African history and cultyure, I guess.
The result are homes that are painted in the colors of the provider. See the pictures.
DSC02345.jpg


Inventing the wheel all over again

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On the occasion of the climate change conference MIT introduced The Copenhagen Wheel. It's a wheel that turns your bike into a hybrid, collecting energy from regenerative braking and distributing it when you need a boost. It can also be used as a personal trainer when used with the iPhone.

"The Wheel uses a technology similar to the KERS (Kinetic Energy Recovery System), which has radically changed Formula One racing over the past couple of years," says Ratti. "When you brake, your kinetic energy is recuperated by an electric motor and then stored by batteries within the wheel, so that you can have it back to you when you need it. The bike wheel contains all you need so that no sensors or additional electronics need to be added to the frame and an existing bike can be retrofitted with the blink of an eye."

The project also aims to create a platform for individual behavioral change.

"The Copenhagen Wheel is part of a more general trend: that of inserting intelligence in our everyday objects and of creating a smart support infrastructure around ourselves for everyday life," says Assaf Biderman, associate director of the project. "For example, the Wheel has a smart lock: if somebody tries to steal it, it goes into a mode where the brake regenerates the maximum amount of power, and sends you a text message. So in the worst case scenario the thief will have charged your batteries before you get back your bike."

It is expected that the wheel will go into production next year, with a tag price competitive with that of a standard electric bike.




Via: MIT media relations

Mobile caps

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A recent invoice demonstrated how rude and counterproductive the current (mobile) data caps practices are. It is amazing that mobile operators can get away with this, how arrogant and deaf can you be regarding your customers.

As someone who travels a lot for my work I have shifted to public transportation, an extra battery and a HDSPA dongle. A good combination for a mobile warrior.
For my mobile data subscription I use Maximum Online from Telfort. It used to have one of the largest dataplans, 1 Gbyte a month. (Recently some providers like Vodafone have differentiated their dataplans, up to 3,5 GByte a month).

November was a month with a lot of travelling, working on a project for a specific wiki. Discussions with the designer on the look-and-feel of the website required a lot of emails with JPG's, which probably spiked my data usage.

The result: an invoice for an overrun of 233 Mbyte ( 23 % above the 1000 Mbyte allowance) with a penalty of 350 % on my normal invoice.
Let's see:
- no tools for tracking my usage during the month
- no averaging over a longer period of time than a month
- no signals, like an email "you have reached 70 % of your allowance"
- no upgrade marketing like "we notice you are a heavy user, we recommend an upgrade to package ABC 

Right. Let's shop for another provider who isn't autistic.


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