But what is the right interpretation? The source of the crisis is quite extraordinary so looking for precedents may not be the right approach , logic and observation are better tools.
Everything started with a lack of cash and credit, combined with a sharp fall of the stockprices. The crisis was dominating the news, experts (or people who were paraded as experts) predicted catastrophies. If you have a business and credit is tight you start optimizing your cashflow: sell your stock, reduce inventories of raw materials, cut cash-out (reduce the flexible workforce, delay investments). As a family you do more or less the same if the future is uncertain: improve your cash at hand, delay expenditures which are "nice-too-have". The new furniture: it can wait. A new car: todays cars are excellent if you keep on maintaining them. The combination leads to a quick and sharp reduction in activity in some sectors but not in all: food is doing fine.
At some point in time you have to start buying raw materials, stock up again. At some point you need the extra staff again (fill up vacancies, balance workforce). At some point people have saved enough and start to spend again on capital goods (slowly and carefully).
And these signs are there.
One of my friends has a recruitment agency and he reports an increase in demand for temporary staff and interim staff, longer projects.
My mother has an apartment on the banks of the river the Maas. She saw a sharp decline in shipping activity after the summer of 2008. In early 2009 the bulk transport ships came back and now the containerships are reappearing.
My bet is that we have bottomed out.
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