While the IMF predicts further economic doom and gloom and everybody is still recovering from the giant drop in GDP in Germany, the EC is being slightly less pessimistic.
Over the great pond, some people are even more optimistic, based on numbers and graphs and statistics. What if they are right?
The end of this recession — the most severe downturn since World War II — is finally in sight. This is the clear message from Economic Cycle Research Institute’s array of leading indices of the U.S. economy.
What are these indicators? One is the ECRI’s U.S. Long Leading Index (USLLI), which has the longest average lead times of any U.S. leading index. Another is the Weekly Leading Index (WLI), which has a shorter lead over the business cycle but is very promptly available.
