Deutsche Shell has a tradition of publishing a solid and highly respected bi-annual report on the mobility trends and future scenarios for Germany. Their latest report has a hidden twist which only becomes apparent when you start to read the German full report in detail.
They have combined the effect of the introduction of more fuel-efficiënt technology with the impact of the changing demographics of Germany to create a projection of the trends in CO2 emissions. (Something ECN also incorproates in their general projections for the Netherlands).
The findings? The age-group below 40 yrs old will drive no more than 20 % of all car-kilometers in 2030, the group above 40 dominates. The percentage of women owning a car will increase, driving up the average number of cars per 1000 inhabitants. (The study does not elaborate further but it is very likely that these changes will have a profound effect on the design of cars and the type of cars sold. Less kid-carriers, more small luxurious vehicles).
The total number of kilometers will grow a little and drop again to current levels.
In an agressive scenario 65 % of all cars sold in 2030 will be hybrid/electrified or powered by something else like hydrogen. The fuel will be partly bio-fuel.
The combined effect? 38 % less CO2 emissions compared to 2009.
A very interesting chart is depicted below: what are the CO2 emissions if you compare Tank-To-Wheel with Well-To-Wheel?
The answer is clear: if you fill electric cars with “grey” electricity your atre kidding yourself. The CO2 effect is much less than you would expect, you need renewable sources.
