[This is second post in a series on the Berkman Report. ]
The methodical analysis of available data is where this report excels. They have searched for data that will substantiate the gut-level belief that Next Gen Connectivity will make a lot of difference.
Such as economic growth. The World Bank has published a study : historical data shows that adding 10 % broadband subscribers (10 more people out of 100 inhabitants) will increase GDP growth in that country by 1.21 % for western countries and 1.38 % for middle/low income economies. Compared to a 2.1 % average growth a massive impact.
Unfortunately you cannot extrapolate this causality beyond 100 % penetration, or translate the causality directly to Next Gen Connectivity. At best you can make a case that staying behind in the next step will probably hurt your growth severely.
The next analysis is in telecommuting. There is a direct relationship between the broadband penetration figures and the level of telecommuting.
A dutch study (2008) shows that already over 44% of the Dutch employees sometimes work at another place than the office. 32 % use the Internet to telecommute for at least one hour or more per week, on average 25 % of their working hours. 79% is of the opinion that telecommuting will reduce traffic. The traffic reduction is estimated at 10 % of commuting traffic and 4 % of total traffic/CO2 emissions. The direct reduction in cash-out for the country in oil not purchased per year can be estimated at over 130 mio Euro per year (enough to pay the interest on a 2-3 billion Euro loan for FttH deployment).
A relationship which is new to me is broadband and entrepeneurial spirit. And the position of Netherlands in the graph: way up there.
It just makes me wonder what the Eurostat statistics measure? If the selling of secondhand goods through Ebay or Marktplaats counts I would expect an even higher number than 25 %, if we would count websites for marketing purposes of small businesses I would have expected a lower number.
Anyway, it confirms the image we have of ourselves: traders by nature.
Leave a comment