Herman: March 2009 Archives

Quote of the day

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" How much is a trillion dollars? If you would have spend a million dollars every day since the birth of Jesus, you still would have hundreds of millions left today."

Crowd rating 2.0

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Wired News dives into the issue of the rating agencies that gave AAA-ratings to toxic products.

Their solution is the right one for the hyperconnected world:
- enforce a standard for reporting (XML-based dialect) that a computer can access, read and import for numbercrunching 
- allow everybody to access, read and use the data
- crowdsource the rating of the product

Elegant, cheap, robust. Splendid.

(hat tip Benoit)

Wireless and wired

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At the F2C conference of David Isenberg the classical debate of wireless versus wired has been restarted. In my opinion they are symbiotic.
Nico Baken has written a wonderful piece on this, its over here.


{Update}

Nico's Mobi law:

Look at the simple Baken mobi-law: D x B x Q = Constant, 

 

D = Distance
B = Bandwidth
Q = QoS

 

And so if d = Ln D, b = Ln B,  q = Ln Q then d + b + q = c with  c = Ln C => (dbq,e) = c with dbq the vector (d,b,q) and e the unity vector 3-1/2(1,1,1), normal to the plane of "constant mobility" where you have to compromise between D, B and Q. The constant c will improve, increase with time and technology developments, but will never be large enough to ensure our bandwidth hunger in larger 3G, 4G LTE cells and has a physical ceiling ... so ... there is only one conclusion!! The cell diameter has to become smaller and smaller ... thus one inevitably comes to microcell generated by antennas on/in all our street furniture ... and yes Streetlights (we have over 4.000.000 in the Netherlands! In cities and ... all along our highways!), VDSL cabinets or bus stop (cabinets). In 1999 I said, since people and cars do not want fibres attached to them:
The more broadband applications, the more (mobile)broadband bandwidth, the smaller the cells, the higher the frequencies ... in the end we will have "ether over fibre". 

Underserved

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The Broadband Stimulus package in the USA gets everybody excited and debating how to spend the sizable but relatively limited amount of money.
One of the big debates is to either allocate it all to bring some form of broadband to underserved rural area's, or alternatively to experiment with many different projects and approaches in cities and rural areas. 

Yesterday I learned a fact that puts "underserved" in a different perspective. 

In some cities, like Cleveland (Ohio), more than 50 % of the population cannot get broadband even if they would want it. The landlines are there, but the rest of the infrastructure has not been put in place for DSL to be supported. The reason: apparently these are lower income areas where people switched to a mobile phone (if you have a limited income and have to choose, a mobile phone gets you better economic position than a landline). (Update). This has led to a decision by the phone company not to invest at all in DSL support.

Gone with the wind

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A wind-only powered speedrecord, over 200 kph (Gas2.org).


Testing, testing

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Mitsubishi cleverly uses Youtube to create a viral marketing campaign for it MIEV electric car.
Many Youtube movies with reactions of drivers. One of them is below here, see the link for more. (link to Youtube movies)


Locusts

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Why selfregulation (update: or a regulator that relies on selfregulation) does not work in the face of greed: a commenter of The Economist sums it up quite succint.

Typical scenario for the last 18 years:
January -
Private Equity Investor (PEI) has 20 million. He uses it a security to borrow 200 mio from Bank1 to buy a company Widgets. Widgets is a solid manufacturing business with assets of land, factories, patents, a brand, good will and no debts.

March -
Widgets borrows 300 million from Bank2 - no problems, its a solid business - but here comes the bit where it all goes criminal, but not illegal...

Widgets pays out 300 million to PEI its owner as a dividend, who repays 200 to Bank1. PEI now has 100 million cash, and has done nothing for it. Widgets however has to pay 20 million in interest per year. PEI now has 100 million.

July -
Widgets also sells its assets: land, patents and so on and leases them back for 30 million a year.
The sales bring 200 million which Widgets also pays out to PEI its owner. PEI now has 300 million.

August -
Widgets Pension Fund is 'restructured' bringing a liquid 150 million onto the balance sheet. Widgets has liabilities to its pensioners with little to back them. 150 million is paid out to PEI as a special dividend., PEI now has 450 million.

December -
PEI sells the business to a pension fund, for 100 million, less than he paid as it has a lot of debt, but it is a good business. PEI now has 550

Recap:
Widgets now has 300 million debt causing 20 million a year in interest, plus 30 million in leasing payments. It has pension liabilities and the pension fund is almost worthless. PEI had 20 million at the start of the year and now has 550 million. But the business is still viable, as Widgets can meet its payments.

5 years later -
Sadly hard times come. Turnover drops, prices drop, costs are cut, people lose their jobs, including engineers, managers, the shop floor and the sales team who did real work for years, created real value, invented the patents, built the brand. It doesn't help. The company has no stores of fat - it goes bust. The banks loans are sour. People lose their jobs, the pensioners cannot be paid. 

This happens 100 times so the banks are bust too, but get bailed out by the taxpayer (that's those guys who lost their jobs and pensions at Widgets)

PEI lives happily in The Bahamas with the 550 million which he 'earned' in a fabulous year of 'value creation' made possible by the power of free and light touch regulated markets.

Sadly, due to the complexity of all this the bright chaps at The Economist can not quite see why this is a slightly problematic way to run an economy... Honi suit qui mal y pense.

(Hat tip Hendrik Rood/Stratix)

Total cost of ownership

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A new Jaguar? No, but the new Tesla S could have been designed over there.

Gas2.org has an interesting approach: would this car be affordable/cheaper if you consider the total cost of ownership compared with a standard USD 35.000 gas-powered car?

The answer is: yes, if gas prices rise again to 4 USD per gallon and you have a longer view than 5 years.

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Cold turkey

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Ars reviews Steve Knopper's new book, Appetite for Self-Destruction: The Spectacular Crash of the Record Industry in the Digital Age.
Knopper's approach of zooming in on the personalities of the key players probably adds a refreshing view on the events as they unfolded.

The most interesting part however are the facts about the incredible profits the industry reaped in the CD-era without passing the benefits to the artists.

When the CD was first introduced, plenty of record company execs hated it. One says, even now, "I thought [the engineers who designed it] could have done something to stop piracy."
Looking back at the CD era, though, it's clear that those little plastic discs were a goldmine. People loved the new format, many repurchased their collections on CD, and prices for recorded music went way up. How did the industry respond to this windfall? By screwing the artists.
Knopper describes how the labels wrote new contracts to cover the new format, contracts which featured larger "packaging reductions" and "free goods allowances." In addition to the deductions, artist royalty rates were reduced. "After labels factored in these newfangled deductions," Knopper says, "typical artists received roughly 81 cents per disc. Under the LP system, artists made a little more than 75 cents per disc. So labels sold CDs for almost $8 more than LPs at stores, but typical artists made just six cents more per record."
Such practices fueled a CD boom that ran from 1984 through 2000, at which point the bottom began falling out of the industry. After two decades of expensive music--and little support for cheap singles--labels had grown fat on pumping out albums with a couple of hits. 

This puts a different perspective on the cries of the record companies that illegal downloading is hurting culture because artists will not get paid for their efforts. Breaking the habit of an addiction to windfall profits is hard but why should have enyone have mercy on them? 


Initiative

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Amsterdam has great ambitions to introduce eletric cars in the city. In 2040 all transport by cars should be electrified.

We just hope this will fare better than the ill-fated experiment with electric boats, 10 years ago.

Data mining or snafu?

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People tend to rely too much on technology to produce perfect answers. Anybody who designs and engineers technology is aware of the opposite: only with a lot of work and sweat and inspiration we succeed in coercing nature to do as we please, more or less.
It was an engineer who came up with the proverb "Murphy is an optimist" 
Governments are as naieve as anyone. Two unrelated stories demonstrate this.

DNA traces of an unknown eastern-European woman had been found at almost17 crime scenes, including two murders (including a 22 year old police officer) but also car jackings, unprofessional break-ins and on a bullet fired in a marital dispute. The crimes where spread around a large area including south-west Germany, France and Switzerland.
It now turns out that the several-hundred-men task force might have really been chasing a phantom. (source BoingBoing)
The cotton swabs probably have been contaminated with DNA during their production. The sensitivity of DNA-analyzers has increased to a point where it is really hard to produce cotton swabs that are DNA free.

 

The Irish police suddenly saw in their statistics a certain Polish driver who was apparently breaking the traffic code all the time. When they saw multiple infringements at the same time at different places somebody started to dig. 
Oops. Apparently many policemen could not decipher the structure of the polish driver licenses. Instead of the name of the person they had entered the polish word for "driver" in the field for name.


Ipod generation

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Some time ago the online media were reporting on the Buma Stemra vs. Suplacon case. The company Suplacon was ordered to pay copyright fees for allowing employees to listen to radios at their workstation. Over the years it has been established in several cases as a reasonable position: if music is played openly and it creates a commercial benefit (like in a restaurant improving the atmosphere) money is made and the creator of the music should get a slice of the pie. The argument gets thin in a work environment, but again there are a lot of precedents.

The amazing part was that the judge included music played on Ipods in his verdict. This opens a can of very unreasonable worms. If I purchase music, play it on my Ipod for myself, why should my employer have to pay for that as soon as I enter my workplace? How about people driving in their leasecar during working hours,  listening to the radio or or their Ipod? 

When you dig into the background of the verdict the answer appears. The company had introduced Ipods as an example in their defense statement. The judge is born in 1945 and probably did not really grasp the technology and its implications. He probably just copied part of the defense statement in his verdict without any further thought,

Generation gaps at work....

Unreal Estate

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Entire districts in cities like Detroit are filled with cheap or empty houses. Down the drain, lost forever? 
Probably not.

As always the artists and the enterpreneurial are the first to see the opportunities. And even architects from Amsterdam have taken up the challenge with the Detroit Unreal Estate Agency. ABC News has created a video of the first couple. CNN has made an item about them.

The NYtimes reports:

A local couple, Mitch Cope and Gina Reichert, started the ball rolling. An artist and an architect, they recently became the proud owners of a one-bedroom house in East Detroit for just $1,900. Buying it wasn't the craziest idea. The neighborhood is almost, sort of, half-decent. Yes, the occasional crack addict still commutes in from the suburbs but a large, stable Bangladeshi community has also been moving in.

So what did $1,900 buy? The run-down bungalow had already been stripped of its appliances and wiring by the city's voracious scrappers. But for Mitch that only added to its appeal, because he now had the opportunity to renovate it with solar heating, solar electricity and low-cost, high-efficiency appliances.

Buying that first house had a snowball effect. Almost immediately, Mitch and Gina bought two adjacent lots for even less and, with the help of friends and local youngsters, dug in a garden. Then they bought the house next door for $500, reselling it to a pair of local artists for a $50 profit. When they heard about the $100 place down the street, they called their friends Jon and Sarah.

Admittedly, the $100 home needed some work, a hole patched, some windows replaced. But Mitch plans to connect their home to his mini-green grid and a neighborhood is slowly coming together.

Now, three homes and a garden may not sound like much, but others have been quick to see the potential. A group of architects and city planners in Amsterdam started a project called the "Detroit Unreal Estate Agency" and, with Mitch's help, found a property around the corner. The director of a Dutch museum, Van Abbemuseum, has called it "a new way of shaping the urban environment." He's particularly intrigued by the luxury of artists having little to no housing costs.


The stability of 3

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The people of Aptera know how to create free publicity. Only a month after some questions were raised about the safety of the car, this video appears. 

A journalist is asked to drive around fast corners in the street, 
and the video appears everywhere

Smart move.

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Parisian flair (2)

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Paris appears to be determined to support electric propulsion. Not just for scooters, but also for cars. Look at the map on their city page with charging stations....

Où sont les bornes de recharge pour véhicules électriques? Consultez la carte et trouvez les bornes sur la voie publique, dans les parcs souterrains de la ville ou dans les stations service. Des bornes pour les deux-roues ou les poids-lourds électriques existent également. 

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End of pipe

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Reuters report:

Shipping contributes about four percent of global emissions from burning fossil fuels, about double the emissions from aviation.

But the industry is less visible to most people than aviation and only very recently faced limits on some of the pollutants in funnel emissions, particularly nitrogen oxides (called NOx) and sulphur dioxide.

Just a few kilometres from one of the busiest ports in the world, a Singapore firm says it has the answer that can help the shipping industry clean up its act.

Ecospec says it has invented and tested a patented method that removes planet-warming carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, which causes acid rain, and soot from ship exhausts.

Their process uses seawater with increased PH (10), sprayed in the exhaust funnel. The dirty water is cleaned before returning it to the sea. 

It is only an end-of-pipe solution, but if there are few or none alternatives available......


Between dream and reality

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Everybody is waiting for the next generation of biofuels. 
Biofuels that do not only to meet the required technical specifications but also are produced without a detrimental impact on food, land or water. That appears to be not so easy.

Greenaironline reports that Rolls-Royce and British Airways could not find a supplier who could deliver 60.000 litres of this next generation biofuel. They wanted to do some extensive ground tests to determine the characteristics of the combination of engine and fuel.

The intensive trials, which would have taken place at Rolls-Royce's Derby facility, would have involved the engine being powered by both ordinary kerosene and the alternative fuels, and operated through its full range of power settings, including idle, acceleration, take-off and cruise.

The airline industry burns some 260.000 million litres of kerosine per year. The IATA target is to replace 10 % in 2017 by alternative fuels: 26.000 million litres per year. 


Incentives

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The Ontario goverment has published their newest feed-in tariffs, aimed at stimulating renewable energy generation by home-owners and companies alike.

They are agressive to say the least. See the list below.
(A Canadian dollar is 0,59 Euro.)

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Cheap

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There is hope

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Technology, Entertainment, Design started out (in 1984) as a conference bringing together people from those three worlds. Since then its scope has become ever broader. The annual conference now brings together the world's most fascinating thinkers and doers, who are challenged to give the talk of their lives (in 18 minutes). borneo.jpg

One of the talks which impressed me the most is the talk by Willie Smits, ".Restoring the rainforest"
Borneo is one of the saddest stories on earth how we humans destroy our environment, and the orangutans who live there.
Smits believes that to rebuild orangutan populations, we must first rebuild their forest habitat -- which means helping local people find options other than the short-term fix of harvesting forests to survive. 
So he started to do so in the middle of one of the most devastated areas in Borneo, and succeeded to recreate the rainforest. See his talk, it strengthens your hope. Yes it can be done.........


Quote of the day

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"Pamela Anderson has more prosthetics in her body than I do. Nobody calls her disabled."

Aimee Mullins in her fantastic TED speech.  
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Trickle

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We like portable computers, but they need to run as long as possible on their battery. 
Technology is advancing fast. The new MSI with both a solid state hard drive and a standard hard drive is capable of running over 13 hours on a single charge.

The power consumption is approximately 5 Watts. I wonder how long it takes before a model is made with solar panels integrated in the lid, extending the battery life to near infinity? 
(Hat tip Dirk)

Fiber to the Desk

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The race to upgrade our communications networks has started. The increasing demand for Internet bandwidth and more and better (HighDefinition) video can only be met by replacing copper with fiber, in the final stretch between your home and the rest of the global network (Fiber-to-the-Home). 
  
But if fiber is superior to copper, why don't we use fiber inside buildings as well? For instance in office buildings with large LAN's? Wouldn't Fiber-to-the-Desk be the logical next step?

The answer is in this Fiber to the Desk white paper. 

The large scale deployment of Fiber-to-the-Home
networks in urban areas with highrise MDU's has led
to significant improvements in materials and processes.
The similarity between highrise MDU's and large office
buildings raises the question if full fiber LAN networks
could be an alternative for hybrid CAT/fiber based
LAN's. A comparison has been made for a greenfield
situation in a relatively small office building. The Fiberto-
the-Desk (FttD) solution shows a significantly lower
CAPEX and lower OPEX. The consumption of energy is
lower. The FttD solution with a star-topology has
several important advantages with regards to security,
management of the network, and future bandwidth
upgrades

Universal

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It is often said that music is universal. It supposedly crosses languages, cultures and etnic backgrounds.

But is it true? Yes, according to recently published study.

Native African people who have never even listened to the radio before can nonetheless pick up on happy, sad, and fearful emotions in Western music, according to a new report published online on March 19th in Current Biology, a Cell Press publication. The result shows that the expression of those three basic emotions in music can be universally recognized, the researchers said.


Naievity

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Google has disclosed some interesting facts in their submission to the New Zealand government regarding take-down-notices. 
The Kiwi goverment tried to pass a "one-strike" law: an ISP would be obliged to terminate the Internet connection of a user when a copyright had been violated. I.e. illegal filesharing of content. The most interesting part was that only a notice by a copyrightholder would be enough to start this process of penalizing a customer.

A similar process is well known in the USA: copyright holders can send a take-down-notice to Youtube (for example) when  copyrighted material is made public on Youtube without permission. So Google (Youtube's parent) has a lot of experience with the practice of this proposed self-regulation.

In its submission, Google notes that more than half (57%) of the takedown notices it has received under the US Digital Millennium Copyright Act 1998, were sent by business targeting competitors and over one third (37%) of notices were not valid copyright claims.

It would be naive to underestimate the possibilities of abuse or a rule. 

Transformation

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Everybody is discussing how the financial sector should be structured in the future. It is wise to start with the basic "utility" functions: funds transfer between parties (payments), and middle man between those who have saved and those who need to lend money. 

These functions might very well be executed by quite different companies than those that call themselves banks. Look at these examples.

The M-PESA payment system , pioneered by Safaricom in Kenya. See this quote on GigaOM:

The idea was to enable users to send minutes to family members in rural areas, who weren't otherwise able to buy prepaid phone cards. However, Kenyans quickly came up with other uses. "Lots and lots of people were using it as a surrogate for currency," Eagle said. "[You] could literally pay for taxi cab rides using cell phone credit."
Safaricom realized a huge opportunity and started a mobile payment service called M-PESA. To call M-PESA a success would be an understatement, according to Eagle. "Within about a year, (Safaricom) became the biggest bank in East Africa." Today you can use your phone to pay for cab rides and electricity, to get money out of ATMs without owning an ATM card or even having a traditional bank account.
Eagle shared another striking example of the transformative power of mobile payments during his ETech talk. Rural communities used to have to pay a lot of money upfront in order to get a modern well capable of providing clean drinking water. Now, there are companies that install these wells for free, complete with an integrated cell phone payment system. Want some water? Just pay as you go with your M-PESA account.

Superficially unrelated is the observation (again by GigaOM) that Ebay is transforming itself to a payment provider: Paypal is growing so fast it will become the biggest revenue generator of Ebay. Om predicts they will change the name Ebay soon to Paypal.

Amazon on the other hand is becoming far more than a webshop for books. Their strategy to leverage their core competence of running a large computing cloud to supply other webservices is very succesfull. The introduction of the second generation Kindle electronic bookreader shows their transformation. A less well know asset is the fact that they are debtfree and rising a mountain of cash which is still growing. Ready to become a bank?

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( Source: GigaOM)

Fluid

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Thanks to Vincent Dekker we can see how MIT's Fluid Interface Lab has come up with a wearable "sixth sense" computer. You have to watch the video to see how inspirational and creative they have been. This may very well be the pointer everybody needed to go to the next level of user interfaces.

8,5 months

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The current crisis has given us new words, billions and trillions. Numbers so large they lose their meaning.  A report of the Asian Development Bank (identified by the analyst at Telco 2.0) puts it in perspective.

The estimated losses of value of financial assets equal 8,5 months of the global GDP. It means everybody in the world has worked 8,5 months for nothing.

Connect and share to create

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For anyone who wants proof that sharing creative material will add to our culture, here it is.

A complete album, created entirely by combining snips and parts of usergenerated Youtube music videos. Just amazing to watch and hear. It brings a smile on your face. This would be forbidden, if Big Content gets its way.


Generation gap

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The freedom of press is restricted to those that have a press, is an old saying.
The Internet gave us all a press, and we are using it extensively.

More and more our governments are trying to interfere with this freedom. Not only in China, but right at home in Europe. The Dutch government has tried to restrict rights given to journalists only to "official" journalists who print on dead wood. The French government is agressively introducing the infamous HADOPI law plus a law that limitatively restricts the sites you can access on public wifi. The Italians force ISP's to block content within 24 hrs if it is deemed "inappropiate", and want to licence all bloggers, and so on.

It is a fight between the old reflex of central control of digital ignorati and the new knowledge we have gained using this Net, without central control. The old school finally understands how powerful this tool is. 

As Schopenhauer said, all truths pass through 3 stages: ridicule, violent opposition and full acceptance. The old school is stuck in stage 2 because some people want to destroy what they cannot control.
Use your vote to oppose them.




Exclusive

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Why not make bikes from wood? Light, strong and you can create a lot of shapes.
Marcus Waldmeister takes orders now: starting at Euro 11.000, handcrafted.

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Cramps

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A Japanese toilet in a ski-resort. It's meant as a marketing gimmick for a coffeebrand. 

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Parisian flair

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Dès le 21 mars,  la Ville de Paris subventionnera jusqu'à 400 € l'achat de tout cyclomoteur électrique neuf 

Paris is changing quickly. Apparently someone in the administration has a vision and has the guts to press on.
The bicycle plan is a great success. Recently they added a strong incentive to start using electric scooters in the city. A 400 Euro subsidy, charging points in convenient places, a shop where you can try out the scooters. Amsterdam, where are you?

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300 prises réparties sur 40 bornes sont mises à disposition gratuitement par la Ville de Paris. Au domicile ou dans un commerce, il suffit de se brancher sur une prise de 220 volts. Une vingtaine de nouvelles bornes doivent être installées prochainement. Il faut compter 4 à 6 heures pour une recharge complète de votre batterie. Les scooters disposent de 50 à 80 km d'autonomi

(Source: Autobloggreen)

Volatile

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Ars Technica reports on a breakthrough in Li-ion battery technology. 

If it is easier for charged ions to move through the battery, you can charge the battery quicker. After all charging is concentrating ions (charged particles) in one side of the battery. The downside is that ions also can move back easily, reducing the builtup charge.
Scientist have been able to combine the opposites, promising an massive decrease of charging time for batteries.

Great for cars. 
If you can design a charging station that can pour so much energy in such a short time in the battery. Lets take a 50 KWh battery, to be charged in 10 minutes. That requires 0,5 MegaWatt of power.

Cradle to ...

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Researchers at the the Fraunhofer Institute for Chemical Technology (ICT) in Pfinztal, German, have created a substitute for plastic for injection moulded components.  

The cellulose industry separates wood into its three main components -- lignin, cellulose and hemicellulose," ICT team leader Emilia Regina Inone-Kauffmann told DPA. "The lignin is not needed in papermaking, however. Our colleagues mix that lignin with fine natural fibers made of wood, hemp or flax and natural additives such as wax. From this, they produce plastic granulate that can be melted and injection-moulded."





Natural brakes

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Prof. Carlota Perez states that a really new disruptive technology will start with a bubble and a subsequent collapse. The bubble is created when all the cashflow that pours out of mature and stable investments seeks new growth and profit. Like piranhas smelling blood the investors  jump on the new dream, until the overinvestment leads to a collapse of the bubble. 
The advantages in the long run for society are bigger than the pain of the collapse. You learn  what works and what must be prevented to happen. The assets are there and will be used. Others see the potential of the new technology and start to incorporate it in every useful application, creating a long period of growth.

According to Perez the Internet bubble did not fit the template. I guess the current collapse does....
In my opinion the real bubble was the growth of the financial sector the last 15 years. The trigger was the introduction of telecommunications/Internet in the sector. It removed a natural brake: the handling of the transfer of money, stock, assets took time. The transfer of documents took time. So the volume was limited (limiting riscs), and you had the need and the time to understand who you are dealing with, what you were dealing in.The farther away, the more cautious you became.
Enter the telecom networks, email and computers who process all this. Suddenly there are no  natural brakes anymore, transfers go on 24 hrs per day, any distance , any volume, any nation. You can define a new asset class to trade in, send an email with a prospectus and 3000 pages of legalese with a click of a mouse. We now know where that ends.
Like a nuclear reaction without dampeners.

In my opinion you have to introduce these brakes or other natural brakes in the system to prevent another chainreaction. This is bound to happen again if we do not apply negative feedback somewhere. 

To show why: see the recent announcement of a conference on microsecond algorithmic trading. An arms race to another meltdown. 
(Source: Frank Collucio, on Gordon Cooks Arch-Econ list)


As Wall Street firms prepare 2009 technology budgets; a good portion of spending will undoubtedly be focused on reducing data latency. Faster processors, refurbished data centers, new routers, more bandwidth and greater capacity are all needed to manage the industry's growing data volume and the requirement for lower latency. With data latency now measured at millisecond intervals and trading strategies for different asset classes -- options, futures and FX -- now moving aggressively toward algorithmic trading, technology organizations are searching for the best and brightest multi-thread developers to program the fastest and newest technologies in order to stay ahead of the markets. Hardware acceleration, multi-core processing, complex event processing, virtualization and every type technology in the data-latency sensitive lifecycle are being squeezed for every last millisecond of speed.

Facts? What facts?

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In the category  "Lies, damned lies and statistics".

Today all over the news: journalists have done research.
20 % of the speed traps cause traffic jams. Ofcourse there is a member of parliament (Aptroot) who sees a populistic angle and starts to fumigate and asks for independent research, including accidents caused by speed traps.

Research? Don't let a good story get hampered by facts. It turns out that the journalists have expanded the circle around the speed trap where they counted traffic jams to 5 kilometer (!) to get to the desired result. If you reduce the circle to 2 kilometer you only get 3 % as a result, if you go down to 1 kilometer the result drops even more.

Journalists? They don't deserve that title.

Digital bullies and ignorati

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An English (rather unscrupulous) law firm who works for Big Content thought they had found a clever strategy: target people who nobody likes with the threat of copyright lawsuits, choose something they will be ashamed of to go public with, let them pay a fine instead. And once this has become a standard, expand it to the greater public. 

Believe it or not, there is copyright on violent sadistic homosexual pornography. So send 500 supposedly illegal viewers of this porn a letter threatening them with lawsuits and public embarrasment: pay up or else.......

Things went horribly wrong. The digital ignorati forgot about open wifi connections, IP-adresses that are spoofed or duplicated and so on. So most letters were sent to completely innocent people who were shocked to be accused of watching violent porn.
A public outrage was the result, consumer organizations have asked for disciplinary measures.

Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.

Relative drop

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In science one uses logarithmic graphs quite often. If you plot points on a graph with a logarithmic (vertical) scale you can compare relative changes quite easily.
More specific: one centimeter up or down in a graph indicates the same RELATIVE change, no matter what the absolute level of change is. 
( A similar usage is in the relative definition of the strenght of sounds, the decibel. An increase of 3 decibel (dB) is a 100 % increase in strenght, no matter what the starting point is.)

The graph below is the Dow Jones over 60 or more years, in such a logarithmic scale. The relative drop in the Great Depression is still bigger than the current drop, as you can see in this graph. (Source Wikipedia)
Hat tip Dirk.
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The thin line between allocation and extortion

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We have touched on the subject of Network Neutrality (NN) before. We all sense without words what is right and what is wrong when your operator starts interfering with your broadband connection but that is not adequate for lawyers and judges. They need written laws.

A couple of days ago I had the pleasure of meeting a prominent and well-articulated UK telecomlawyer who gave a presentation on the state of affairs in the UK in telecoms and broadband. One of his remarks on Network Neutrality triggered my reponse.

One of the dogmas of economic theory is that price discrimination is good. If there is more value you can ask a higher price. The result of all this is an efficient allocation of resources. One example often cited is the price of a seat on an airplane. Hardly anybody on the same plane pays the same price. If you can charge more for seats in front of the plane, do so, nothing wrong with that. 
Based on this theory some people (like this lawyer  [update: no, he does not agree, he just referred to the position I just learned]) say that traffic shaping, prioritizing traffic and price discrimination by the operator is another example of efficient allocation of resources, therefore a good thing.

Unfortunately not all price discriminations are benevolent. There is a thin line between allocation and extortion where a lot of laws have been crafted to protect us from the mob. The same applies to broadband, we just need to define these laws in a new technological context.

Let me give you an example in another network: electrical power connections to your home. Price discrimination can be found everywhere. The powerlines come in different sizes and qualities (maximum Amps, 1 phase or 3 phase etc.). Kilowatthours of power have different prices. We even dream of smart grids: our home appliances (as a group) negotiate with the power company on price in real time, as the company tries to reduce peak power demand and flatten out demand variations by using a pricing mechanism.
Nobody will see anything else than efficient allocation of resources. 
Until extortion rears its ugly head. Suppose the power company , using the smart grid,  can determine when you want to turn on the airconditioner on a hot day. The value of that airconditioner is high, so they decide to raise the price of electricity used for that purpose.
We all will scream murder, this is a racket to extort citizens. The wrong kind of price discrimination, crossing the thin line by artificially creating scarcity.

The same applies to broadband. We have broadband connections in many different qualities and prices, price discrimination abound. And yes, there may be congestion on the line or higher up in the network (although rumors of the exaflood bringing the Internet to its knees by increased traffic are greatly exaggerated or untrue). The TCP/IP protocol in the standard implementation has a back-off mechanism to cope with congestion which works quite well, treating all packets equal. No problem with that.

The line gets crossed when the operator starts to interfere and creates artificial scarcities within the connections to discriminate (e.g. raise) prices. A publicly known policy of an operator to support VOIP (low latency for these type of packets) is fine, slowing down competitors VOIP and prioritizing your own is extortion. Raising prices for better bandwidth is fine, letting you pay more for accessing Google is extortion.

We need laws that force operators to publicize their policies for managing traffic so we can scrutinize them.  We need laws to forbid anyhting that crosses the line between allocation and extortion. No mob on the Net.

Hopefully we get more lawyers and politicians who cross the line from digital ignorati to digital immigrants before it is too late.

Seaweed

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Earth2tech reports on the succes of Aurora, an algae-to-biofuel startup. It just goes to show how difficult it can be to scale up processes from lab size to industrial levels. Apparently we have a long way to go...


While other startups are working to grow oil-rich algae to make biofuel, it has proven difficult to do cost effectively or in large enough quantities to be useful. Companies face the difficulty of maintaining productivity rates as temperatures change, distributing nutrients throughout the pond and keeping contaminants -- including other algae strains- out. Algae tends to grow fairly thinly on the surface of a pond, with top layers choking lower layers out, and distributing light and nutrients can be energy- and cost-intensive. "Everyone thinks they can grow algae because they've seen it in an aquarium," Walsh said. "But it's been a real challenge."


The emperors clothes

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Wikileaks is a website where leaked documents can be found. An internal presentation of the Carlyle Group (a large private equity investment firm) on the global crisis was published over here. Looking back it is stunning nobody wanted to see the signs. 
There are 3 slides which sum up their view. The third one gives hope.

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carlyle3.JPG

Factual

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A good education lasts a lifetime. As a MSc. I like to see numbers and raw data supporting a claim, order-of-magnitude calculations and references, the basic physics. They give me grip and the ability to discriminate clever "spinning" from honest efforts.

One of the questions that has nagged me for some time is the economics of hydrogen. Hydrogen is a carrier of energy, not a source. You have to make hydrogen with electricity (electrolysis of water) or from syngas (gasification) or biogas or with another process. The next steps are to compress it, transport it and use it in a fuel cell to create electrical power.  For example to power a car.

The technology is there, but does it make sense when you start checking the numbers?

As always, look and ye shall find on the Net, there is someone who has put in the effort.
You can find the detailed assumptions and calculations (and much more) over here
I have summarized and converted the calculation for your benefit. My conclusion: it is definitely in the right ballpark.

Production of hydrogen by windpower and electrolysis, per Kg
- energy costs : Euro 2,87
- electrolyser  :  Euro 0,51
- facility costs, overhead :  Euro 0,20

Hydrogen transport and storage per Kg
- pipelines and storage  :  Euro 0,30
- compressors and energy :  Euro 0,41
- trucking :  Euro 0,25     

Fueling per Kg
- stations : Euro 0,42

Total per Kg : Euro 4,95

A Toyota FCHV car with hydrogen fuel cells runs approximately 120 km per Kg of hydrogen, according to a real life test. This adds up to 0,04 Euro per km without taxes. Add 100 % taxes and you end up with Euro 1,27 per 16 km on fuel costs.

It does not answer the question if this is the most effective and efficient method of using windpower, but it has wetted my appetite to dig deeper.

Traction

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In the Netherlands we have the hydrogen truck prototype, in the USA they have the hydrogen tractor. 


XXX

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Human nature has not changed over the years. A recent study digs deep in the consumption of (paid) online pornography in the USA.

As it turns out, the differences between states are relatively small but confirms that hate and love are two sides of the same coin.

There are some trends to be seen in the data. Those states that do consume the most porn tend to be more conservative and religious than states with lower levels of consumption, the study finds.
"Some of the people who are most outraged turn out to be consumers of the very things they claimed to be outraged by," Edelman says.


The definition of quality

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As Robert Pirsig once wrote in "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance", we humans have an innate ability to recognise quality when we see or hear it. In art, love, music and many other aspects of life. The amazing thing is that we all sense more or less the same, but have a hard time trying to define this quality: words fail us.

This contradiction can be recognized in the debate on "Network Neutrality" or NN. 
Everybody intuitively understands the issue: don't mess with my Internet connection, it is my lifeline. Don't restrict my freedom.

Things get really messy when people try to define this attitude in legalese, in words that can be made to a law which is enforcable and discriminating. In countries with a culture of strict adherence to the exact wording of contract law (like the UK and USA) the debate is stuck. The more European approach is to try to define an attitude, a moral position , a quality which must be recognizable in the implementation.

The Norwegians have taken a shot at this. You can download 2009-02-26-Norway-Neutral-Network-Guidelines.pdf. here. 

They are the first ones and it is a good start. Read it.

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