Complexity: June 2009 Archives

Jamiton

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A "soliton" is a self-reinforcing solitary wave (a wave packet or pulse) that maintains its shape while it travels at constant speed (Wikipedia). Researchers at MIT have discovered that the mathematics describing traffic flow under high densities are quite similar to the fluid dynamics equations that describe solitons. 
They have coined the term "jamiton" (jam-soliton) to describe the well known effect that in dense traffic a traffic jam appears for no apparent reason. 

Hopefully this breakthrough will lead to knowledge how to prevent these traffic jams.

(Source: Wired)

How traffic jams are created out of thin air

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A nice Youtube movie showing the effects of drivers interacting in a stream of cars on the highway. Only a minor perturbation will ripple through the system and create shockwaves.
A fine demonstration of emergent behaviour in complex systems.


Lies, damn lies and productivity statistics

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One of my favourite blogs is Evolving Excellence, dedicated to Lean Thinking in production and services. Outspoken, opiniated but well researched, practical.
Bill Waddell , one of their prominent bloggers referred in one of his blogs to a stunning fact.

The productivity statistics as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the USA are fundamentally flawed and overrate the actual productivity.


"Conceptually, the impact of offshoring is more pronounced in manufacturing measures than in business sector measures, provided the domestic manufacturer is purchasing the offshored goods or services as inputs. ... If a domestic computer manufacturer switches from domestic to foreign suppliers of intermediate parts such as memory chips or call center services, real manufacturing sectoral output is unchanged because the real value of the computer is unchanged. Because U.S. jobs are lost (all other things unchanged), labor productivity will rise. If the U.S. manufacturer switches most of its production to off-shore facilities, labor productivity might rise substantially." 

As Bill says " In other words, if the furniture factory lays off all of the people who make legs, seats and backs, and buys those parts from China, but keeps the few people who do the final chair assembly, the jobs lost to China are called "productivity"."

I remember all the economists and journalists praising the USA for its high productivity growth, compared to the EU. The better system...
Apparently at least a part of it was a (convenient) damn lie, keeping the foreign investment dollars coming to the USA.
 

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