Human value: October 2008 Archives

Solace

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Quote du jour:
"In Belgium people are happy that there is a credit crisis. The political debate suddenly is about something that really matters". 

Kris Peeters, Belgian sociologist/antropologist, while comparing the Belgium stalemated debate on state reform to quarelling cooks in a kitchen who cannot even agree on recipes.

Zeitgeist

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Beer-commercials tend to touch the soul of the (male) inhabitants of a country. As such they a perfect indicator of reality.

Take a look at this Budweiser commercial and a "pastiche" made in the USA, 8 years apart. Apparently according to the actors who have independently created the 2008 version there is hope....

2000


2008

Forrest Gump explains

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A viral email is circulating fast aroung the world. Forrest Gump is explaining the toxic mortgages. Hilarious.


ForrestGump.jpg
Mortgage Backed Securities are like boxes of chocolates. Criminals on Wall Street stole a few chocolates from the boxes and replaced them with turds. Their criminal buddies at Standard & Poor rated these boxes AAA Investment Grade chocolates. These boxes were then sold all over the world to investors. Eventually somebody bites into a turd and discovers the crime. Suddenly nobody trusts American chocolates anymore worldwide.

Hank Paulson now wants the American taxpayers to buy up and hold all these boxes of turd-infested chocolates for $700 billion dollars until the market for turds returns to normal. Meanwhile, Hank's buddies, the Wall Street criminals who stole all the good chocolates are not being investigated, arrested, or indicted. So far
nothing is back to normal.

Mama always said: "Sniff the chocolates first Forrest".

Too big to fail or not big enough to be critical

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The "quote du jour"  is by Tom Evslin.

"Nothing should be too big to fail because nothing can be made failure-safe."

"There's no question anymore that institutions which are too big to fail are also too big to leave unregulated. [..]  
Those of us who have built complex interactive systems know that nodes which are significantly large compared to the network as a whole pose an outsized risk. The Internet is a triumph of decentralized relatively small nodes, none of which is "too big to fail". [..]
There is significant question whether any degree of regulation will be sufficient to prevent failure. Nodes fail for unexpected reasons - usually not the ones you're watching for." 

An excellent exposé how the illusion of control has more inherent dangers than the acceptance of the limits of control. Read it.

On-shoring

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Outsourcing and offshoring have become standard recipes for MBA's. The common "wisdom" taught in management schools is that all production will follow cheap labor to China and India and further. But, as one of our favorite blogs Evolving Excellence time and again demonstrates, in many cases this recipe is wrong and misguided. Improving your processes by respect for people and reducing all kinds of waste (including dead capital, production to stock and lead-time)  is the superior answer. 

And will cheap labor stay cheap over time? Apparently not.
A good example was given to me by a consultant who conducts many lenghty interviews on video and tape. He used to let these transcribe in India but changed recently to a supplier in.......
the United Stated of America, in the MidWest. 25 % lower cost, much higher quality because they understand more of the context.

Bretton Woods revisited

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Good politicians have a good sense of what their constituents feel is important. Our political leaders apparently understand that we think that this bonanza in the financial world at the expense of others should have been prevented. So a new order must be designed.

The interesting part is if they are able to think the unthinkable. Unthinkable according to the school of thought that has been prevailing the last 30 years, condensed in the simplistic rally  "Government is the problem, the free market solves everything".

The originators of this school of thought saw quite correctly that the complexity of our
 society has risen to a level where top-down Newtonian/Taylorian design and control is becoming ineffective. Too much energy spent on control, bogging down development, frustrating creativity. The answer (reduce interventions and control) has become an ideology instead of a means to an end. The ideology was also hijacked by shrewd operators who saw the possibility of getting rich by re-distribution of wealth , concentrating it in a smaller group.

The solution forward cannot be a return to the rigid centralized control systems of 30 years ago. Fortunately the concepts behind emergent systems analysis give us some handles to design a new paradigm. (More on that in a later post).

For the short term a rule of thumb could be used. Anything that is considerd vital infrastructure (like part of the banking systems: not the merchant banks but the simple oldfashioned handling of savings and lendings) must be isolated from the wild-west of the free market because we cannot afford to let that be hijacked by selfish greed. The price is too high, the originator of the problems does not pay the price (bail-outs are required, creating the moral hazard). We started this in the EU already with electricity networks, we should do the same with telecoms and proceed with contemplating what is vital


Quote of the day

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"Don't put your trust in money, put your money in what en who you trust"

Rick van de Ploeg, interview Radio 1

Raising a stink

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Personal accountability and direct feedback of the effects of your actions would have reduced or even prevented the current credit crisis. They are powerfull safeguards of sanity. Some people take this to an interesting albeit somewhat extreme level. In one of our favorite blogs Evolving Excellence the story is told of a man who retains all his waste produced during a one year period in his basement. The experiment has immediate effects: a change of lifestyle which not only reduces waste but also saves money.



If the nurse is worried....

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The unfortunate tendency in society to mistrust professionals leads to bloated control structures that do reduce value and add paperwork. Anybody who works in care and health care can cite horrifying examples. Recently someone who works with mentally handicapped juveniles told me the amount of paperwork per juvenile has quintupled in 5 years time.

Fontunately there are other examples. In the blog "Running a Hospital" Paul Levy, President and CEO of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston (USA) describes the stunning results of  a "trigger" program. A trigger is an early indicator of trouble. And as it turns out,  if the nurse is worried, so should be you. Trust the instincts of a dedicated professional.

" The Triggers Program has various specific criteria mandating a response from providers. For example, if the pulse rate is acutely greater than 130 beats per minute, a Trigger is called and the team responds. However, we have one criterion which is much more subjective: "marked nursing concern." When we implemented the Triggers program, many physicians were very nervous about giving this criterion. They were afraid that they might be called in the middle of the night for things that weren't really important, and that nurses might use this as a weapon if they did not like the physician or if they disagreed with the plan of care.

Well, it turns out that nurses use this Trigger quite judiciously - only 15% of our Triggers are called only for nursing concern. (In another 27% of cases, nurses express "marked concern" but the patient also meets other criteria simultaneously.) It also turns out that if nurse has "marked nursing concern," it means you're really sick. The in-hospital mortality rate for a patient who has a Trigger called for "marked nursing concern" is 10.7%.

This is roughly twice as bad as showing up to the Emergency Department with a heart attack.
Literally." 

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