Human value: November 2008 Archives

The Story of Stuff

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How to explain what economists call externalities? The costs not visible in the pricetag of the product you buy but incurred to another part of society?
The Story of Stuff does a fantastic job with a narrator and simple and funny animations. In return for 20 minutes of your time you get a story which will make you and your children smile and think.....

Here is a short teaser.


Spin

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Your brain interprets what you see. 
People with a dominant right side of their brain see a clockwise turning lady, left sided see counterclockwise turns. But it is the same animation.
A trick to force your brain to see otherwise is by lowering your focus to below her feet and loop back up again. Still sceptic?


Repeating mistakes

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It is very sad to see how mentall walls between sectors of society prevent us from learning. It is possible to see how all the learning that has resulted from introducing (and sometimes rejecting) new concepts in industrial environments apparently is unknown to other sectors.
Such as activity based costing. Once a hype, now seen as overburdening the primary process  with administrative work that does not add value, even introduces waste, focus on the wrong things. The mistake is the idea that detailed control information will result in better steering of operations....by outsiders. 

In healthcare the whole hype is re-enacted as if nothing is learned. Activity based costing is introduced, more detail is asked. The Wall Street Journal has an article on how the number of codes used to bill insurance companies is to be increased 10-fold. For example from 5 possible codes for a sprained ankle to 45 (!). Total number of codes will be a staggering 155.000........
In the Netherlands 30.000 " DBC's "  have been introduced, a more sophisticated implementation of the same idea. Already there are plans to reduce the number to 3000.
Apparently we will just have to wait untill it is shown (again) that this is a road to nowhere.

Responsability

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Taking your responsability serious: a wonderfull minisite from Patagonia, a clothing manufacturer showing the impact of their products: travelled distances, CO2, toxic materials, energy use per product. Excellent.

"Every one of us does things in the course of a day that adversely affect the health of the planet. We don't decide to, we just don't give it a thought.

Surprising, though, how many habitual practices we can - and do - change once we give them some thought. We can all name environmental habits we've changed and more we intend to. This has to be done, and more often by more of us. The impact of an unexamined life is far more serious than it once was - deadly so.
Here we'll examine Patagonia's life and habits as a company. The idea is to give more of our practices some air and thought, and to change habits often played out on an industrial scale, with concomitant effects. We've been in business long enough to know that when we can reduce or eliminate a harm, other businesses will be eager to follow suit." 

(Hat tip Robert)


Walking the gemba

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"Walking the Gemba" is an expression used by practitioners of Lean Management. You have to get of your chair and walk to the "floor", observe without interfering the actual processes as they are executed. Walking the Gemba on a regular basis will give you the deep understanding of reality which is needed to guide improvements. This week I heard one bad and two good examples from different industries.

The new management of a merged healthcare institute prides itself that they visit all locations. The reality is that they have meetings in these locations, staff sees them walking in...and walking out. No contact what so ever. The bitterness in the staff rises because they get chastised about their performance based on (in their opinion totally wrong) reports out o the new IT-system.

The surgeons of a hospital that is being scrutinized for quality issues have to take a training where they physically follow and comment on all steps a patient will experience. All 35-40 steps from intake to release after surgery, including the support processes  preparing everything for surgery.

A contractor who builds fiber networks experienced serious overruns on costs and time while integrating existing duct networks (50 mm HDPE tube). The management "walked the gemba" and spent a day or two in the trenches. To their utter shock they saw that their subcontractors had developed a quick and dirty method to identify the right duct in a bundle you have dug up. Just close one side of the tube , put pressure on the tube on the other end, take a drill and drill a small hole in each tube where you have dug. If the tube starts hissing it is the right one. Unfortunately the drilled tubes now are damaged. They have a leak, take in water, it may not be possible any more later on to blow fiber through the tube. But hey, whose problem is that?

Blind spot in the mirror

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The credit crisis is fueled by lack of trust. Which bank can you trust with your billions nowadays, is the question.
So the race to increase the ratio's is on, governments step in to increase the solvency of large banks. But even if the tier-one ratio is increased from 8 to 12 %, it is not enough when trust is lost and the public runs to the bank to withdraw its money.

Maybe the bottom line is that nobody really trusts the banking system any more.

Plenty of room for disruptive moves from unexpected entrants in the market who rewrite the rules. Anybody who has a lower risc profile/higher trust ratio than a standard bank and is able to manage the ordinary "dull" banking functions at low costs is a contender. After all, if you have a couple of billions to invest this party would be preferable.

So what about large supermarket chains? Marketing, logistics, IT, card handling, credit assesment and consumer relations hold no secrets for them. They know how important trust is: you cannot make mistakes with food quality without paying a high price. Or other large retailers?

Big telecom companies? Nice cashflow, their basic business is also  a need-to-have purchase item for consumers, nice and stable. Consumer billing at low costs is a well known operational skill. Credit management? Look how mobile operators have learned to manage their riscs. Marketing? Certainly not worse than most banks. 

I wonder how long it takes before somebody suddenly wakes up and sees the opportunity to redefine banking. It will be easy to pick up experienced people to build the business........



New School

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In one of his pieces Mark Pesce (Hyperpeople blog) remarks that nowadays a classroom is an anomaly to kids. It is the only place where connectivity is low, where connectivity is not used for the primary process. Everywhere else they use mobile phones and the Internet to connect and share.

It struck me as one of the best examples of the gap that hyperconnectivity has created within a generation.

Fortunately there are some rare examples of new thinking in schools. 

In a college in my neighbourhood a professor in laboratory technology uses a wiki to educate his pupils. They have to fill the wiki with facts about a certain subject, by experiment, by discussion, by finding references, working in groups. The most interesting part is how the professor used the edit-tracking inherent to the wiki as a means to follow the progress of his students. He can value their individual contributions by monitoring the changes and discussions.

Hyperconnected learning. Interesting.

Old school

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Just this weekend I visited a newly built high school. The school was designed with a specific guideline, based on an old saying amongst teachers " if you hear a name mentioned of a pupil and you have no idea who it is, the school is too big". So the architect and the management divided the space into seperate area's (age groups and education) no bigger than 200 students. Teachers and students "live" within this area most of the time and get to know each other by name and face. Great idea !

Mark Pesce (Hyperpeople blog) writes eloquently about what happens when we are all hyperconnected. You have to take some time to digest these pieces, but they are worth the effort.

In one of his posts he goes back to the evolutionary basis of this old saying. Turns out it makes perfect sense.


In the last million years, as our brains grew explosively - as one scientist put it, "perhaps the most improbable event in all of evolution, anywhere" - much of the potential of all that new gray matter was put to work for social benefit. The "new brain" or neocortex, which is the most dramatically enlarged portion of the human brain, seems to be the area dedicated to our social relationships.
We know this because, in 1992, British anthropologist Robin Dunbar compared the average troop size of gorillas and chimpanzees against the average tribe sizes of humans. He found that there was a direct correlation between the volume of the neocortex in these three species and their average troop or tribe size. This value, known as "Dunbar's Number", is roughly 20 for gorillas, who have the smallest neocortex, about 35 for chimpanzees, and - for us lucky human beings, who have the greatest selection pressures on our social behavior - just under one hundred and fifty. We may not be entirely exceptional, but we're doing quite well.
Essentially, inside of each one of our heads, there are a hundred and fifty other people running around. Yes, that sounds a bit crowded (particularly when they're up partying all night long with their mates), but it's actually imminently practical. These "little people" inside our heads are models of each person we know well: our family, our friends, our colleagues. For each of these people we build mental model which helps us to predict their behavior. (It isn't really them, but rather, our image of them.) This predictive capability smoothes our social interactions. We know how to interact with people whom we have in our heads; with others we remain demure, reserved - in a word, predictable. Only with intimacy do we express the quirks of behavior which make us unique, only with intimacy do we take note of them in others.

Close to you

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Give a man some freedom and imagination, and see what his hands can make.

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A wonderfull house, so warm you can almost feel it through the pictures. 

Go and see the site of Simon Dale




Bretton Woods revisited (2)

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In an earlier post a reference was made to systems that show emergent behaviour.

We are trained to assume  that we can deduce the behaviour of something complex from the study of its components. Just keep on researching for more details, throw more computer power at it and at the end we will be able to predict and control its behaviour.
Alas. Many if not most complex systems show behaviour that can NOT be deduced from its components. Complexity arises and increases when both the number of "actors" and the number of interactions between the actors increases. One example often cited is an ant heap : the complex behaviour shown by ants searching for food can be simulated by  ants with only 3 simple rules. 
1. If you find food go back to the heap while leaving a scented trail
2. If you cross a scented trail of another ant follow it away from the heap
3. If you fail to find food within a certain periode of time start searching in a random pattern.
The amazing thing is how complex and adapative this emergent behaviour can be when circumstances change.
 
This book  gives a nice introduction on complexity and emergent behaviour, and of the men and women who started in the 80's with investigating this new field.
It remains to be seen where the scientific efforts will lead us, but for me the concepts have already enough validity to be used in daily life as "rules of thumb" . Such as:
- Trying to control a complex system in detail has an enormous cost in overhead and in slow/ineffective adaptation to changes in environments (see some parallels?)
- Naieve approaches like changing one parameter and expecting that everything else stays the same always leads to surprises, so-called inpredictable second/third order effects. (as many politicians regularly show)
- A complex system has multiple meta-stable states. Increasing forces in the system can lead to sudden and fast changes to another (meta-)stable state. (and we go on as if this always was and has been the way we do things). 
- When circumstances and the environment change a complex system will find a new pretty good/acceptable  state/solution very fast. (But you might be surpised by the solution.)
- You need a governor who acts when the system goes off-track into an undesirable state. Meta-stability and quick changes has its drawbacks.
- Rules and a definition of  "better" are needed. Rules stabilize the system but should not stabilize it to death. "Better" is a high level indicator by which the actors in the system and the governor can judge if a certain new state of the system is in the "right" direction. 

Needless to say that the selection of rules and the definition of "better" are key issues for the governor.  A simple example is the roundabout versus intersections with traffic lights. The traffic lights are the (expensive and inflexible) control solution, the roundabout is an alternative solution in the spirit of  complex systems. Simple, effective, cheap, hardly any control needed.  
But:
- the governor has to take control when the traffic load is too high: the roundabout chokes.
- you have to select the right rule. The first implementation of roundabouts In the Netherlands failed because the rule was wrong " traffic from the right has right of way" .Only when the rule was changed to " traffic on the roundabout has right of way"  it worked as foreseen.

What we call "the market"  is a complex system with emergent behaviour. 
(More to follow)

Soul biographies

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The freedom of the press is limited to those who have a press. Our hyperconnectivity allows everyone with a bit of tenacity to become a printer. And some print beautiful litte pieces. (Hat tip Robert)


Missing the point

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Transport for London started some months ago a campaign about safety for cyclists in London. They are promoting the use of bicycles in Greater London.
The campaign started with a brilliant video which demonstrates how easy it is to miss very obvious objects if you are focussing on something else. (See first video).
The succes has led them to release three new ones. The best one is embedded as second video. Brilliant.


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