" How much is a trillion dollars? If you would have spend a million dollars every day since the birth of Jesus, you still would have hundreds of millions left today."
Human value: March 2009 Archives
Wired News dives into the issue of the rating agencies that gave AAA-ratings to toxic products.
Their solution is the right one for the hyperconnected world:
- enforce a standard for reporting (XML-based dialect) that a computer can access, read and import for numbercrunching
- allow everybody to access, read and use the data
- crowdsource the rating of the product
Elegant, cheap, robust. Splendid.
(hat tip Benoit)
Why selfregulation (update: or a regulator that relies on selfregulation) does not work in the face of greed: a commenter of The Economist sums it up quite succint.
Typical scenario for the last 18 years:
January -
Private Equity Investor (PEI) has 20 million. He uses it a security to borrow 200 mio from Bank1 to buy a company Widgets. Widgets is a solid manufacturing business with assets of land, factories, patents, a brand, good will and no debts.
March -
Widgets borrows 300 million from Bank2 - no problems, its a solid business - but here comes the bit where it all goes criminal, but not illegal...
Widgets pays out 300 million to PEI its owner as a dividend, who repays 200 to Bank1. PEI now has 100 million cash, and has done nothing for it. Widgets however has to pay 20 million in interest per year. PEI now has 100 million.
July -
Widgets also sells its assets: land, patents and so on and leases them back for 30 million a year.
The sales bring 200 million which Widgets also pays out to PEI its owner. PEI now has 300 million.
August -
Widgets Pension Fund is 'restructured' bringing a liquid 150 million onto the balance sheet. Widgets has liabilities to its pensioners with little to back them. 150 million is paid out to PEI as a special dividend., PEI now has 450 million.
December -
PEI sells the business to a pension fund, for 100 million, less than he paid as it has a lot of debt, but it is a good business. PEI now has 550
Recap:
Widgets now has 300 million debt causing 20 million a year in interest, plus 30 million in leasing payments. It has pension liabilities and the pension fund is almost worthless. PEI had 20 million at the start of the year and now has 550 million. But the business is still viable, as Widgets can meet its payments.
5 years later -
Sadly hard times come. Turnover drops, prices drop, costs are cut, people lose their jobs, including engineers, managers, the shop floor and the sales team who did real work for years, created real value, invented the patents, built the brand. It doesn't help. The company has no stores of fat - it goes bust. The banks loans are sour. People lose their jobs, the pensioners cannot be paid.
This happens 100 times so the banks are bust too, but get bailed out by the taxpayer (that's those guys who lost their jobs and pensions at Widgets)
PEI lives happily in The Bahamas with the 550 million which he 'earned' in a fabulous year of 'value creation' made possible by the power of free and light touch regulated markets.
Sadly, due to the complexity of all this the bright chaps at The Economist can not quite see why this is a slightly problematic way to run an economy... Honi suit qui mal y pense.
(Hat tip Hendrik Rood/Stratix)
Ars reviews Steve Knopper's new book, Appetite for Self-Destruction: The Spectacular Crash of the Record Industry in the Digital Age.
Knopper's approach of zooming in on the personalities of the key players probably adds a refreshing view on the events as they unfolded.
The most interesting part however are the facts about the incredible profits the industry reaped in the CD-era without passing the benefits to the artists.
When the CD was first introduced, plenty of record company execs hated it. One says, even now, "I thought [the engineers who designed it] could have done something to stop piracy."
Looking back at the CD era, though, it's clear that those little plastic discs were a goldmine. People loved the new format, many repurchased their collections on CD, and prices for recorded music went way up. How did the industry respond to this windfall? By screwing the artists.
Knopper describes how the labels wrote new contracts to cover the new format, contracts which featured larger "packaging reductions" and "free goods allowances." In addition to the deductions, artist royalty rates were reduced. "After labels factored in these newfangled deductions," Knopper says, "typical artists received roughly 81 cents per disc. Under the LP system, artists made a little more than 75 cents per disc. So labels sold CDs for almost $8 more than LPs at stores, but typical artists made just six cents more per record."
Such practices fueled a CD boom that ran from 1984 through 2000, at which point the bottom began falling out of the industry. After two decades of expensive music--and little support for cheap singles--labels had grown fat on pumping out albums with a couple of hits.
This puts a different perspective on the cries of the record companies that illegal downloading is hurting culture because artists will not get paid for their efforts. Breaking the habit of an addiction to windfall profits is hard but why should have enyone have mercy on them?
Yes, one can always find someone who prediceted the future correctly in hindsight. But this one is impressive, especially the ten years estimate... Senator Byron L. Dorgan, Democrat of North Dakota said in 1999, after the Congress passed the bill to erase a lot of bank laws: ''I think we will look back in 10 years' time and say we should not have done this but we did because we forgot the lessons of the past, and that that which is true in the 1930's is true in 2010. I wasn't around during the 1930's or the debate over Glass-Steagall. But I was here in the early 1980's when it was decided to allow the expansion of savings and loans. We have now decided in the name of modernization to forget the lessons of the past, of safety and of soundness.'' I am thinking of contacting him for some stock-market advise ;-)
Source: BoingBoing
Entire districts in cities like Detroit are filled with cheap or empty houses. Down the drain, lost forever?
Probably not.
As always the artists and the enterpreneurial are the first to see the opportunities. And even architects from Amsterdam have taken up the challenge with the Detroit Unreal Estate Agency. ABC News has created a video of the first couple. CNN has made an item about them.
The NYtimes reports:
A local couple, Mitch Cope and Gina Reichert, started the ball rolling. An artist and an architect, they recently became the proud owners of a one-bedroom house in East Detroit for just $1,900. Buying it wasn't the craziest idea. The neighborhood is almost, sort of, half-decent. Yes, the occasional crack addict still commutes in from the suburbs but a large, stable Bangladeshi community has also been moving in.
So what did $1,900 buy? The run-down bungalow had already been stripped of its appliances and wiring by the city's voracious scrappers. But for Mitch that only added to its appeal, because he now had the opportunity to renovate it with solar heating, solar electricity and low-cost, high-efficiency appliances.
Buying that first house had a snowball effect. Almost immediately, Mitch and Gina bought two adjacent lots for even less and, with the help of friends and local youngsters, dug in a garden. Then they bought the house next door for $500, reselling it to a pair of local artists for a $50 profit. When they heard about the $100 place down the street, they called their friends Jon and Sarah.
Admittedly, the $100 home needed some work, a hole patched, some windows replaced. But Mitch plans to connect their home to his mini-green grid and a neighborhood is slowly coming together.
Now, three homes and a garden may not sound like much, but others have been quick to see the potential. A group of architects and city planners in Amsterdam started a project called the "Detroit Unreal Estate Agency" and, with Mitch's help, found a property around the corner. The director of a Dutch museum, Van Abbemuseum, has called it "a new way of shaping the urban environment." He's particularly intrigued by the luxury of artists having little to no housing costs.
"Pamela Anderson has more prosthetics in her body than I do. Nobody calls her
disabled."

Aimee Mullins in her fantastic TED speech.
It is often said that music is universal. It supposedly crosses languages, cultures and etnic backgrounds.
But is it true? Yes, according to recently published study.
In our series of cool (motor)cycle designs here is the next contestant: The Movito Electric Scooter which recently won NASA's Create the Future Design Contest. From inhabitat. Two bases can be aligned in parallel to form a two-seater vehicle.
An expert on risk management told me some interesting statistics on the amount of money people in different countries had stored in Icelandic high-interest accounts. In the UK and The Netherlands a significant amount of people had much more than the government guaranteed limit of money in their account. With the risk of losing this. In Germany, less than 1% had this. Anyone who claims there are no cultural differences in Europe should think this over.
The current crisis has given us new words, billions and trillions. Numbers so large they lose their meaning. A report of the Asian Development Bank (identified by the analyst at Telco 2.0) puts it in perspective.
The estimated losses of value of financial assets equal 8,5 months of the global GDP. It means everybody in the world has worked 8,5 months for nothing.
Prof. Carlota Perez states that a really new disruptive technology will start with a bubble and a subsequent collapse. The bubble is created when all the cashflow that pours out of mature and stable investments seeks new growth and profit. Like piranhas smelling blood the investors jump on the new dream, until the overinvestment leads to a collapse of the bubble.
The advantages in the long run for society are bigger than the pain of the collapse. You learn what works and what must be prevented to happen. The assets are there and will be used. Others see the potential of the new technology and start to incorporate it in every useful application, creating a long period of growth.
According to Perez the Internet bubble did not fit the template. I guess the current collapse does....
In my opinion the real bubble was the growth of the financial sector the last 15 years. The trigger was the introduction of telecommunications/Internet in the sector. It removed a natural brake: the handling of the transfer of money, stock, assets took time. The transfer of documents took time. So the volume was limited (limiting riscs), and you had the need and the time to understand who you are dealing with, what you were dealing in.The farther away, the more cautious you became.
Enter the telecom networks, email and computers who process all this. Suddenly there are no natural brakes anymore, transfers go on 24 hrs per day, any distance , any volume, any nation. You can define a new asset class to trade in, send an email with a prospectus and 3000 pages of legalese with a click of a mouse. We now know where that ends.
Like a nuclear reaction without dampeners.
In my opinion you have to introduce these brakes or other natural brakes in the system to prevent another chainreaction. This is bound to happen again if we do not apply negative feedback somewhere.
To show why: see the recent announcement of a conference on microsecond algorithmic trading. An arms race to another meltdown.
(Source: Frank Collucio, on Gordon Cooks Arch-Econ list)
As Wall Street firms prepare 2009 technology budgets; a good portion of spending will undoubtedly be focused on reducing data latency. Faster processors, refurbished data centers, new routers, more bandwidth and greater capacity are all needed to manage the industry's growing data volume and the requirement for lower latency. With data latency now measured at millisecond intervals and trading strategies for different asset classes -- options, futures and FX -- now moving aggressively toward algorithmic trading, technology organizations are searching for the best and brightest multi-thread developers to program the fastest and newest technologies in order to stay ahead of the markets. Hardware acceleration, multi-core processing, complex event processing, virtualization and every type technology in the data-latency sensitive lifecycle are being squeezed for every last millisecond of speed.
In the category "Lies, damned lies and statistics".
Today all over the news: journalists have done research.
20 % of the speed traps cause traffic jams. Ofcourse there is a member of parliament (Aptroot) who sees a populistic angle and starts to fumigate and asks for independent research, including accidents caused by speed traps.
Research? Don't let a good story get hampered by facts. It turns out that the journalists have expanded the circle around the speed trap where they counted traffic jams to 5 kilometer (!) to get to the desired result. If you reduce the circle to 2 kilometer you only get 3 % as a result, if you go down to 1 kilometer the result drops even more.
Journalists? They don't deserve that title.
In science one uses logarithmic graphs quite often. If you plot points on a graph with a logarithmic (vertical) scale you can compare relative changes quite easily.
More specific: one centimeter up or down in a graph indicates the same RELATIVE change, no matter what the absolute level of change is.
( A similar usage is in the relative definition of the strenght of sounds, the decibel. An increase of 3 decibel (dB) is a 100 % increase in strenght, no matter what the starting point is.)
The graph below is the Dow Jones over 60 or more years, in such a logarithmic scale. The relative drop in the Great Depression is still bigger than the current drop, as you can see in this graph. (Source Wikipedia)
Hat tip Dirk.
Wikileaks is a website where leaked documents can be found. An internal presentation of the Carlyle Group (a large private equity investment firm) on the global crisis was published over here. Looking back it is stunning nobody wanted to see the signs.
There are 3 slides which sum up their view. The third one gives hope.
As Robert Pirsig once wrote in "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance", we humans have an innate ability to recognise quality when we see or hear it. In art, love, music and many other aspects of life. The amazing thing is that we all sense more or less the same, but have a hard time trying to define this quality: words fail us.
This contradiction can be recognized in the debate on "Network Neutrality" or NN.
Everybody intuitively understands the issue: don't mess with my Internet connection, it is my lifeline. Don't restrict my freedom.
Things get really messy when people try to define this attitude in legalese, in words that can be made to a law which is enforcable and discriminating. In countries with a culture of strict adherence to the exact wording of contract law (like the UK and USA) the debate is stuck. The more European approach is to try to define an attitude, a moral position , a quality which must be recognizable in the implementation.
The Norwegians have taken a shot at this. You can download 2009-02-26-Norway-Neutral-Network-Guidelines.pdf. here.
They are the first ones and it is a good start. Read it.





















