Hyperconnectivity: March 2009 Archives

Crowd rating 2.0

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Wired News dives into the issue of the rating agencies that gave AAA-ratings to toxic products.

Their solution is the right one for the hyperconnected world:
- enforce a standard for reporting (XML-based dialect) that a computer can access, read and import for numbercrunching 
- allow everybody to access, read and use the data
- crowdsource the rating of the product

Elegant, cheap, robust. Splendid.

(hat tip Benoit)

Wireless and wired

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At the F2C conference of David Isenberg the classical debate of wireless versus wired has been restarted. In my opinion they are symbiotic.
Nico Baken has written a wonderful piece on this, its over here.


{Update}

Nico's Mobi law:

Look at the simple Baken mobi-law: D x B x Q = Constant, 

 

D = Distance
B = Bandwidth
Q = QoS

 

And so if d = Ln D, b = Ln B,  q = Ln Q then d + b + q = c with  c = Ln C => (dbq,e) = c with dbq the vector (d,b,q) and e the unity vector 3-1/2(1,1,1), normal to the plane of "constant mobility" where you have to compromise between D, B and Q. The constant c will improve, increase with time and technology developments, but will never be large enough to ensure our bandwidth hunger in larger 3G, 4G LTE cells and has a physical ceiling ... so ... there is only one conclusion!! The cell diameter has to become smaller and smaller ... thus one inevitably comes to microcell generated by antennas on/in all our street furniture ... and yes Streetlights (we have over 4.000.000 in the Netherlands! In cities and ... all along our highways!), VDSL cabinets or bus stop (cabinets). In 1999 I said, since people and cars do not want fibres attached to them:
The more broadband applications, the more (mobile)broadband bandwidth, the smaller the cells, the higher the frequencies ... in the end we will have "ether over fibre". 

Underserved

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The Broadband Stimulus package in the USA gets everybody excited and debating how to spend the sizable but relatively limited amount of money.
One of the big debates is to either allocate it all to bring some form of broadband to underserved rural area's, or alternatively to experiment with many different projects and approaches in cities and rural areas. 

Yesterday I learned a fact that puts "underserved" in a different perspective. 

In some cities, like Cleveland (Ohio), more than 50 % of the population cannot get broadband even if they would want it. The landlines are there, but the rest of the infrastructure has not been put in place for DSL to be supported. The reason: apparently these are lower income areas where people switched to a mobile phone (if you have a limited income and have to choose, a mobile phone gets you better economic position than a landline). (Update). This has led to a decision by the phone company not to invest at all in DSL support.

Cold turkey

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appetite.jpg
Ars reviews Steve Knopper's new book, Appetite for Self-Destruction: The Spectacular Crash of the Record Industry in the Digital Age.
Knopper's approach of zooming in on the personalities of the key players probably adds a refreshing view on the events as they unfolded.

The most interesting part however are the facts about the incredible profits the industry reaped in the CD-era without passing the benefits to the artists.

When the CD was first introduced, plenty of record company execs hated it. One says, even now, "I thought [the engineers who designed it] could have done something to stop piracy."
Looking back at the CD era, though, it's clear that those little plastic discs were a goldmine. People loved the new format, many repurchased their collections on CD, and prices for recorded music went way up. How did the industry respond to this windfall? By screwing the artists.
Knopper describes how the labels wrote new contracts to cover the new format, contracts which featured larger "packaging reductions" and "free goods allowances." In addition to the deductions, artist royalty rates were reduced. "After labels factored in these newfangled deductions," Knopper says, "typical artists received roughly 81 cents per disc. Under the LP system, artists made a little more than 75 cents per disc. So labels sold CDs for almost $8 more than LPs at stores, but typical artists made just six cents more per record."
Such practices fueled a CD boom that ran from 1984 through 2000, at which point the bottom began falling out of the industry. After two decades of expensive music--and little support for cheap singles--labels had grown fat on pumping out albums with a couple of hits. 

This puts a different perspective on the cries of the record companies that illegal downloading is hurting culture because artists will not get paid for their efforts. Breaking the habit of an addiction to windfall profits is hard but why should have enyone have mercy on them? 


Data mining or snafu?

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People tend to rely too much on technology to produce perfect answers. Anybody who designs and engineers technology is aware of the opposite: only with a lot of work and sweat and inspiration we succeed in coercing nature to do as we please, more or less.
It was an engineer who came up with the proverb "Murphy is an optimist" 
Governments are as naieve as anyone. Two unrelated stories demonstrate this.

DNA traces of an unknown eastern-European woman had been found at almost17 crime scenes, including two murders (including a 22 year old police officer) but also car jackings, unprofessional break-ins and on a bullet fired in a marital dispute. The crimes where spread around a large area including south-west Germany, France and Switzerland.
It now turns out that the several-hundred-men task force might have really been chasing a phantom. (source BoingBoing)
The cotton swabs probably have been contaminated with DNA during their production. The sensitivity of DNA-analyzers has increased to a point where it is really hard to produce cotton swabs that are DNA free.

 

The Irish police suddenly saw in their statistics a certain Polish driver who was apparently breaking the traffic code all the time. When they saw multiple infringements at the same time at different places somebody started to dig. 
Oops. Apparently many policemen could not decipher the structure of the polish driver licenses. Instead of the name of the person they had entered the polish word for "driver" in the field for name.


Ipod generation

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Some time ago the online media were reporting on the Buma Stemra vs. Suplacon case. The company Suplacon was ordered to pay copyright fees for allowing employees to listen to radios at their workstation. Over the years it has been established in several cases as a reasonable position: if music is played openly and it creates a commercial benefit (like in a restaurant improving the atmosphere) money is made and the creator of the music should get a slice of the pie. The argument gets thin in a work environment, but again there are a lot of precedents.

The amazing part was that the judge included music played on Ipods in his verdict. This opens a can of very unreasonable worms. If I purchase music, play it on my Ipod for myself, why should my employer have to pay for that as soon as I enter my workplace? How about people driving in their leasecar during working hours,  listening to the radio or or their Ipod? 

When you dig into the background of the verdict the answer appears. The company had introduced Ipods as an example in their defense statement. The judge is born in 1945 and probably did not really grasp the technology and its implications. He probably just copied part of the defense statement in his verdict without any further thought,

Generation gaps at work....

US goes prepaid

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phone.jpgA survey by the New Millenium Research Corporation has indicated that Americans are massively considering switching from their expensive mobile phone contracts to prepaid, or pay-as-you-go phones. While in Europe mobile phone companies have generally offered great 1 year phone contracts, in the US the situation is less good for consumers. For some reason there seems to be less competition and the deals with the newest online phones are expensive. Now, however, with the recession kicking in hard, Americans are suddenly looking at their costs and discovering they are paying way to much for their mobile phones. Some smaller companies are offering great low-cost prepaid plans and the survey shows Americans might be switching massively in the coming year. Another worthwile conclusions from the report is that 35% of the respondents state that they primarily use their cell phone for phone communications, which is slightly higher that 32% who say they primarily use their land-line and 32% who say they use both equally.

(source NYTimes blog)

Fiber to the Desk

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patchfiber.JPG
The race to upgrade our communications networks has started. The increasing demand for Internet bandwidth and more and better (HighDefinition) video can only be met by replacing copper with fiber, in the final stretch between your home and the rest of the global network (Fiber-to-the-Home). 
  
But if fiber is superior to copper, why don't we use fiber inside buildings as well? For instance in office buildings with large LAN's? Wouldn't Fiber-to-the-Desk be the logical next step?

The answer is in this Fiber to the Desk white paper. 

The large scale deployment of Fiber-to-the-Home
networks in urban areas with highrise MDU's has led
to significant improvements in materials and processes.
The similarity between highrise MDU's and large office
buildings raises the question if full fiber LAN networks
could be an alternative for hybrid CAT/fiber based
LAN's. A comparison has been made for a greenfield
situation in a relatively small office building. The Fiberto-
the-Desk (FttD) solution shows a significantly lower
CAPEX and lower OPEX. The consumption of energy is
lower. The FttD solution with a star-topology has
several important advantages with regards to security,
management of the network, and future bandwidth
upgrades

Naievity

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Google has disclosed some interesting facts in their submission to the New Zealand government regarding take-down-notices. 
The Kiwi goverment tried to pass a "one-strike" law: an ISP would be obliged to terminate the Internet connection of a user when a copyright had been violated. I.e. illegal filesharing of content. The most interesting part was that only a notice by a copyrightholder would be enough to start this process of penalizing a customer.

A similar process is well known in the USA: copyright holders can send a take-down-notice to Youtube (for example) when  copyrighted material is made public on Youtube without permission. So Google (Youtube's parent) has a lot of experience with the practice of this proposed self-regulation.

In its submission, Google notes that more than half (57%) of the takedown notices it has received under the US Digital Millennium Copyright Act 1998, were sent by business targeting competitors and over one third (37%) of notices were not valid copyright claims.

It would be naive to underestimate the possibilities of abuse or a rule. 

Transformation

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Everybody is discussing how the financial sector should be structured in the future. It is wise to start with the basic "utility" functions: funds transfer between parties (payments), and middle man between those who have saved and those who need to lend money. 

These functions might very well be executed by quite different companies than those that call themselves banks. Look at these examples.

The M-PESA payment system , pioneered by Safaricom in Kenya. See this quote on GigaOM:

The idea was to enable users to send minutes to family members in rural areas, who weren't otherwise able to buy prepaid phone cards. However, Kenyans quickly came up with other uses. "Lots and lots of people were using it as a surrogate for currency," Eagle said. "[You] could literally pay for taxi cab rides using cell phone credit."
Safaricom realized a huge opportunity and started a mobile payment service called M-PESA. To call M-PESA a success would be an understatement, according to Eagle. "Within about a year, (Safaricom) became the biggest bank in East Africa." Today you can use your phone to pay for cab rides and electricity, to get money out of ATMs without owning an ATM card or even having a traditional bank account.
Eagle shared another striking example of the transformative power of mobile payments during his ETech talk. Rural communities used to have to pay a lot of money upfront in order to get a modern well capable of providing clean drinking water. Now, there are companies that install these wells for free, complete with an integrated cell phone payment system. Want some water? Just pay as you go with your M-PESA account.

Superficially unrelated is the observation (again by GigaOM) that Ebay is transforming itself to a payment provider: Paypal is growing so fast it will become the biggest revenue generator of Ebay. Om predicts they will change the name Ebay soon to Paypal.

Amazon on the other hand is becoming far more than a webshop for books. Their strategy to leverage their core competence of running a large computing cloud to supply other webservices is very succesfull. The introduction of the second generation Kindle electronic bookreader shows their transformation. A less well know asset is the fact that they are debtfree and rising a mountain of cash which is still growing. Ready to become a bank?

amazon_com_debt_vs_cash.png






















( Source: GigaOM)

Fluid

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Thanks to Vincent Dekker we can see how MIT's Fluid Interface Lab has come up with a wearable "sixth sense" computer. You have to watch the video to see how inspirational and creative they have been. This may very well be the pointer everybody needed to go to the next level of user interfaces.

Connect and share to create

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For anyone who wants proof that sharing creative material will add to our culture, here it is.

A complete album, created entirely by combining snips and parts of usergenerated Youtube music videos. Just amazing to watch and hear. It brings a smile on your face. This would be forbidden, if Big Content gets its way.


Generation gap

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The freedom of press is restricted to those that have a press, is an old saying.
The Internet gave us all a press, and we are using it extensively.

More and more our governments are trying to interfere with this freedom. Not only in China, but right at home in Europe. The Dutch government has tried to restrict rights given to journalists only to "official" journalists who print on dead wood. The French government is agressively introducing the infamous HADOPI law plus a law that limitatively restricts the sites you can access on public wifi. The Italians force ISP's to block content within 24 hrs if it is deemed "inappropiate", and want to licence all bloggers, and so on.

It is a fight between the old reflex of central control of digital ignorati and the new knowledge we have gained using this Net, without central control. The old school finally understands how powerful this tool is. 

As Schopenhauer said, all truths pass through 3 stages: ridicule, violent opposition and full acceptance. The old school is stuck in stage 2 because some people want to destroy what they cannot control.
Use your vote to oppose them.




Natural brakes

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Prof. Carlota Perez states that a really new disruptive technology will start with a bubble and a subsequent collapse. The bubble is created when all the cashflow that pours out of mature and stable investments seeks new growth and profit. Like piranhas smelling blood the investors  jump on the new dream, until the overinvestment leads to a collapse of the bubble. 
The advantages in the long run for society are bigger than the pain of the collapse. You learn  what works and what must be prevented to happen. The assets are there and will be used. Others see the potential of the new technology and start to incorporate it in every useful application, creating a long period of growth.

According to Perez the Internet bubble did not fit the template. I guess the current collapse does....
In my opinion the real bubble was the growth of the financial sector the last 15 years. The trigger was the introduction of telecommunications/Internet in the sector. It removed a natural brake: the handling of the transfer of money, stock, assets took time. The transfer of documents took time. So the volume was limited (limiting riscs), and you had the need and the time to understand who you are dealing with, what you were dealing in.The farther away, the more cautious you became.
Enter the telecom networks, email and computers who process all this. Suddenly there are no  natural brakes anymore, transfers go on 24 hrs per day, any distance , any volume, any nation. You can define a new asset class to trade in, send an email with a prospectus and 3000 pages of legalese with a click of a mouse. We now know where that ends.
Like a nuclear reaction without dampeners.

In my opinion you have to introduce these brakes or other natural brakes in the system to prevent another chainreaction. This is bound to happen again if we do not apply negative feedback somewhere. 

To show why: see the recent announcement of a conference on microsecond algorithmic trading. An arms race to another meltdown. 
(Source: Frank Collucio, on Gordon Cooks Arch-Econ list)


As Wall Street firms prepare 2009 technology budgets; a good portion of spending will undoubtedly be focused on reducing data latency. Faster processors, refurbished data centers, new routers, more bandwidth and greater capacity are all needed to manage the industry's growing data volume and the requirement for lower latency. With data latency now measured at millisecond intervals and trading strategies for different asset classes -- options, futures and FX -- now moving aggressively toward algorithmic trading, technology organizations are searching for the best and brightest multi-thread developers to program the fastest and newest technologies in order to stay ahead of the markets. Hardware acceleration, multi-core processing, complex event processing, virtualization and every type technology in the data-latency sensitive lifecycle are being squeezed for every last millisecond of speed.

Digital bullies and ignorati

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An English (rather unscrupulous) law firm who works for Big Content thought they had found a clever strategy: target people who nobody likes with the threat of copyright lawsuits, choose something they will be ashamed of to go public with, let them pay a fine instead. And once this has become a standard, expand it to the greater public. 

Believe it or not, there is copyright on violent sadistic homosexual pornography. So send 500 supposedly illegal viewers of this porn a letter threatening them with lawsuits and public embarrasment: pay up or else.......

Things went horribly wrong. The digital ignorati forgot about open wifi connections, IP-adresses that are spoofed or duplicated and so on. So most letters were sent to completely innocent people who were shocked to be accused of watching violent porn.
A public outrage was the result, consumer organizations have asked for disciplinary measures.

Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.

The thin line between allocation and extortion

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We have touched on the subject of Network Neutrality (NN) before. We all sense without words what is right and what is wrong when your operator starts interfering with your broadband connection but that is not adequate for lawyers and judges. They need written laws.

A couple of days ago I had the pleasure of meeting a prominent and well-articulated UK telecomlawyer who gave a presentation on the state of affairs in the UK in telecoms and broadband. One of his remarks on Network Neutrality triggered my reponse.

One of the dogmas of economic theory is that price discrimination is good. If there is more value you can ask a higher price. The result of all this is an efficient allocation of resources. One example often cited is the price of a seat on an airplane. Hardly anybody on the same plane pays the same price. If you can charge more for seats in front of the plane, do so, nothing wrong with that. 
Based on this theory some people (like this lawyer  [update: no, he does not agree, he just referred to the position I just learned]) say that traffic shaping, prioritizing traffic and price discrimination by the operator is another example of efficient allocation of resources, therefore a good thing.

Unfortunately not all price discriminations are benevolent. There is a thin line between allocation and extortion where a lot of laws have been crafted to protect us from the mob. The same applies to broadband, we just need to define these laws in a new technological context.

Let me give you an example in another network: electrical power connections to your home. Price discrimination can be found everywhere. The powerlines come in different sizes and qualities (maximum Amps, 1 phase or 3 phase etc.). Kilowatthours of power have different prices. We even dream of smart grids: our home appliances (as a group) negotiate with the power company on price in real time, as the company tries to reduce peak power demand and flatten out demand variations by using a pricing mechanism.
Nobody will see anything else than efficient allocation of resources. 
Until extortion rears its ugly head. Suppose the power company , using the smart grid,  can determine when you want to turn on the airconditioner on a hot day. The value of that airconditioner is high, so they decide to raise the price of electricity used for that purpose.
We all will scream murder, this is a racket to extort citizens. The wrong kind of price discrimination, crossing the thin line by artificially creating scarcity.

The same applies to broadband. We have broadband connections in many different qualities and prices, price discrimination abound. And yes, there may be congestion on the line or higher up in the network (although rumors of the exaflood bringing the Internet to its knees by increased traffic are greatly exaggerated or untrue). The TCP/IP protocol in the standard implementation has a back-off mechanism to cope with congestion which works quite well, treating all packets equal. No problem with that.

The line gets crossed when the operator starts to interfere and creates artificial scarcities within the connections to discriminate (e.g. raise) prices. A publicly known policy of an operator to support VOIP (low latency for these type of packets) is fine, slowing down competitors VOIP and prioritizing your own is extortion. Raising prices for better bandwidth is fine, letting you pay more for accessing Google is extortion.

We need laws that force operators to publicize their policies for managing traffic so we can scrutinize them.  We need laws to forbid anyhting that crosses the line between allocation and extortion. No mob on the Net.

Hopefully we get more lawyers and politicians who cross the line from digital ignorati to digital immigrants before it is too late.

XXX

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Human nature has not changed over the years. A recent study digs deep in the consumption of (paid) online pornography in the USA.

As it turns out, the differences between states are relatively small but confirms that hate and love are two sides of the same coin.

There are some trends to be seen in the data. Those states that do consume the most porn tend to be more conservative and religious than states with lower levels of consumption, the study finds.
"Some of the people who are most outraged turn out to be consumers of the very things they claimed to be outraged by," Edelman says.


The definition of quality

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As Robert Pirsig once wrote in "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance", we humans have an innate ability to recognise quality when we see or hear it. In art, love, music and many other aspects of life. The amazing thing is that we all sense more or less the same, but have a hard time trying to define this quality: words fail us.

This contradiction can be recognized in the debate on "Network Neutrality" or NN. 
Everybody intuitively understands the issue: don't mess with my Internet connection, it is my lifeline. Don't restrict my freedom.

Things get really messy when people try to define this attitude in legalese, in words that can be made to a law which is enforcable and discriminating. In countries with a culture of strict adherence to the exact wording of contract law (like the UK and USA) the debate is stuck. The more European approach is to try to define an attitude, a moral position , a quality which must be recognizable in the implementation.

The Norwegians have taken a shot at this. You can download 2009-02-26-Norway-Neutral-Network-Guidelines.pdf. here. 

They are the first ones and it is a good start. Read it.

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