Life after cheap oil: November 2008 Archives

Somebody told me recently how electric vehicles pose an unexpected problem for car manufacturers, The internal combustion engine is a capricious piece of technology, but it allows you to make many design choices which give it a specific character (number of cilinders, bore/stroke, tuning, exhaust and so on). We consumers have gotten used to this, even more so it has become a part of our lifestyle. Car manufacturers differentiate themselves with it.

Who says electric minicars cannot be fun to drive? 

The limited capacity of accumulators is one of the major hurdles for the introduction of electric propulsion of vehicles. A lot of energy and intellect and money is thrown at the problem, with promising results.

"Every one of us does things in the course of a day that adversely affect the health of the planet. We don't decide to, we just don't give it a thought.

Surprising, though, how many habitual practices we can - and do - change once we give them some thought. We can all name environmental habits we've changed and more we intend to. This has to be done, and more often by more of us. The impact of an unexamined life is far more serious than it once was - deadly so.
Here we'll examine Patagonia's life and habits as a company. The idea is to give more of our practices some air and thought, and to change habits often played out on an industrial scale, with concomitant effects. We've been in business long enough to know that when we can reduce or eliminate a harm, other businesses will be eager to follow suit." 

It is my personal belief that Chinese cars will be coming to Europe in the next couple of years. Although their first attempts to enter the European market were not successful (remember the Landwind) they will return and strike hard at the weakened Western automobile industry. As an example consider the cars presented at the Guangzhou International Motor Show. First of all there is the Brilliance BS6 Hybrid. This car is equipped with nickel-hydrogen batteries and an electric motor and reduces fuel consumption by 35%. It will come to the market in 2009 or 2010. Secondly, and already available across China in the coming days, is the BYD F3DM (the Chinese only need to reconsider their naming). This Hybrid plug-in car can reach 160 km/h and can drive 100 km in electric mode, which is a considerable distance. When attached to a rapid recharge station it can regain 50% of its electric capacity in 10 minutes, when plugged in at home it takes 9 hours, i.e. overnight. I definitely wouldn't mind having that car in Europe, and it doesn't even look so bad! If you want to read more check out leblogauto (in French) or, if your Chinese is up to standards, the autohome site.

We humans create simplified simulations of reality in our minds, patterns of behaviour. We use them daily so we can reduce the amount of information we have to digest and to predict what is going to happen "  if.......".

Magicians and spin doctors  can be effective by manipulating our assumptions. They try to trigger us by words en visual clues into assuming that reality fits a pattern we know. They often succeed in locking us into a perception of reality that is more governed by our internal  simulation than what is actually happening. So much we actually do not perceive some inputs any more, as shown in a previous post.

So it pays to be very carefull when words are used that trigger emotions and assumptions, like in advertisements. Look in the opposite direction.

I got triggered by Project Better Place .   

It is a venture to get all-electric cars powered by renewable sources on the road in many countries, starting in Denmark and Israel and Australia. 

The nomer " Project Better Place"  (PBP) has strong connotations with an altruistic goal to improve the world. But venture capitalists who invest over 200 mio USD are most likely interested in high returns. So  where is the beef?

In the Ecogeek blog questions are raised about the business model of the cars of PBP.

A recent presentation by their European Business Development Executive Hans de Boer      gave some indications of a  plan how PBP could make a fortune.

For each country a local company is set up with local partners and local financing. The local company sells or leases the cars, leases the batteries to drivers, sets up a network of charge points connected to the grid. PBP manages how and when the cars are charged up, cuts deals with suppliers of (renewable) electric energy.

The key remark for me was that the business case for a user of the electric car was great....because no taxes were levied on electric cars.

This is not sustainable. Most governments raise a lot of income out of taxes on cars and gasoline If electric cars will become mainstream the governments will need to get compensation for this lost income.

So could this be the plan? Local companies bear the financial riscs of both the batteries and a business case that is highly dependent upon a tax advantage which cannot be sustained in the long run. The local company raises the money to build the infrastructure (charging points). PBP only contributes intellectual property (which they continue to own and control) but controls the grid and the charging. They are the exclusive middle man between suppliers of energy and consumers, making money out of every Kwh sold. And cars consume a lot of Kwh's.  If the number of charging points is high enough other EV's will have no choice but to use this infrastructure, creating a de-facto monopoly for PBP.

Pretty shrewd. As a working hypothesis on how to assess PBP until more or contradicting facts become public this is my favorite.

Together with Barack Obama's election into the White House, Californians approved Proposal 1A. The proposition allocates $9.95 billion to the California High-Speed Rail Authority. Of that $9.95 billion, $9 billion will be used to construct the core segments of the rail line from San Francisco to the Los Angeles area and the rest will be spent on improvements to local railroad systems, which will connect locations away from the high-speed rail mainline to the high-speed system. Travelling time from SF to LA will be reduced to some two and a half hours and it is far more sustainable than car or plane.

However, the project still requires federal matching funds, since a $9.95 billion bond issue only covers at most half of the estimated cost of the initial core segment. But don't we all agree that Obama needs some 'lighthouse projects'? And wouldn't this be a great one? In the mean time, watch some amazing animations on the nc3d.com website, a 3D visualization consulting firm specializing in transportation, architecture and urban design projects.

 

Planned for the end of next year: the Fisker Karma, a four-door, plug-in hybrid car. The Karma has a 50 mile all-electric range and more than 350 miles of total range. Fisker claims that the Karma "will have the potential for a fuel economy of over 100 miles per gallon on extended drives." The car is expected to cost around $80,000. And the best news is that Fisker recently announced the opening of a new Engineering and Development Center in
Pontiac, Michigan. The 34,000 square foot facility will house up to 200 engineers and
designers, who will support the development and production program of the Fisker Karma. Looks like there are some companies surviving the credit crisis!

A modern team of Italian researchers has revisited a device invented in 1833 by fellow Italian G.D. Botto for creating hydrogen. The device is based on the principle that a temperature difference can generated a current. By reflecting sunlight from two parabolic mirrors onto a hollow tube wrapped in metal and filled with water a temperature difference is produced, which then generates enough electricity to produce hydrogen through electrolysis. Simple, yet clever. Unfortunately, as wel all know, the devil is in the details. Can this be scaled up, what are production costs, what is the efficiency compared to current solar cells, are just a few of the questions I would like to see answered. Nevertheless, rethinking great ideas from the past always has my personal sympathy. Read more here.

Today in Eindhoven there is a conference organized by/for the dutch " Technical Attache"  network on " Innovative Technologies for road transport and personal mobility" .In both the presentation of PSA and of the Indian utility vehicle company Mahindra & Mahindra one message was clear. The force of the EU in pushing vehicle manufacturers in the right direction is massive.

Nature follows art.