Life after cheap oil: September 2009 Archives

The extraction of oil out of tar sands, for example in Canada (Alberta) is hotly debated. A posting in Science Blogs followed by a debate between advocates and opponents gives a quick introduction to the issues at hand. Apparently there is hardly a trusted source of information available, a sign of large commercial interests and something to hide.

Many people I know advocate that emissions should be compared in two steps: first well-to-tank seperately from tank-to-wheel emissions. Tar sands show why. Apparently the well-to-wheel emissions are "only" 5 to 15 % higher than normal gasoline. 

That doesn't seem much unless you compare this to the effort it takes to reduce emissions by 10 %. If you only compare well-to-tank the picture seems to be much bleaker: 2 to 3 times more emissions. Processing tar sand eats energy.

The really bad thing appears to be the enviromental devastation (land, water, toxic waste) tar sand processing leaves us as a residue. The lakes with toxic waste are enormous.

As you can see over here.

They have combined the effect of the introduction of more fuel-efficiënt technology with the impact of the changing demographics of Germany to create a projection of the trends in CO2 emissions. (Something ECN also incorproates in their general projections for the Netherlands).

The findings? The age-group below 40 yrs old will drive no more than 20 % of all car-kilometers in 2030, the group above 40 dominates. The percentage of women owning a car will increase, driving up the average number of cars per 1000 inhabitants. (The study does not elaborate further but it is very likely that these changes will have a profound effect on the design of cars and the type of cars sold. Less kid-carriers, more small luxurious vehicles).

The total number of kilometers will grow a little and drop again to current levels.

In an agressive scenario 65 % of all cars sold in 2030 will be hybrid/electrified or powered by something else like hydrogen. The fuel will be partly bio-fuel.

The combined effect? 38 % less CO2 emissions compared to 2009.

A very interesting chart is depicted below: what are the CO2 emissions if you compare Tank-To-Wheel with Well-To-Wheel?

The answer is clear: if you fill electric cars with "grey" electricity your atre kidding yourself. The CO2 effect is much less than you would expect, you need renewable sources.